Premier League
— Russia
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 16:30 •
Gazprom Arena
Expected Goals
2.35 (league 1.52)
0.51 (league 1.08)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 75.5% | 14.9% | 6.3% |
best score tips
2 - 0
15.9%
1 - 0
13.5%
3 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Akhmat | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Zenit | 0 | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 13.5% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 12.4% | 6.3% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 7.3% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Zenit carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 240 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Zenit +14.1, Akhmat -9.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Zenit
vs
Akhmat
Elo gapZenit +240
Home / draw / away66% / 18% / 16%
Expected home share80%
Combined Elo3287.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3287.3
Elo home share
80%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1746.2 | 1541.1 |
| Form Elo | 1754.7 | 1548.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1645 | 1464.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1704.2 | 1522.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1748 | 1564.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +14.1 | -9.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Zenit last-5 Elo change: +14.1; Akhmat last-5 Elo change: -9.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 73% | 33% |
| Attack | 78% | 56% |
| Defense | 67% | 22% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.20
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 85% | 38% | 62% | 58% | 8% | 32% |
| Draws | 15% | 46% | 31% | 8% | 46% | 28% |
| Loses | 0% | 15% | 8% | 33% | 46% | 40% |
ZenitWDDLDWWDWWDWWWDWWWWLWWWDWD
AkhmatLLLWWDDDWWLDLLLLWWWDDWLDL
League goals
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 18 | 45 | 16 | 14 | 30 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| GA total | 7 | 10 | 17 | 12 | 22 | 34 |
| GA avg | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Zenit | Akhmat | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 88% | 50% | 76% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 58% | 15% | 36% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| 3.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Failed to score | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 8 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 8 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | — | 2-1 | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Zenit | Akhmat |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 58% | 42% |
| Def | 70% | 30% |
| Poisson Distribution | 82% | 18% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 69% | 31% |
| Total | 71.3% | 28.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.30 @ 1xBet
Draw5.70 @ 1xBet
Away13.70 @ 1xBet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.99 @ 1xBet
Under 2.51.95 @ 1xBet
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.58 @ Marathonbet
No1.45 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
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