Persha Liga
— Ukraine
Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 08:00 •
Stadion Yunist
Expected Goals
1.45 (league 1.25)
0.39 (league 1.03)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 63.7% | 26.2% | 9.7% |
best score tips
1 - 0
23.0%
2 - 0
16.7%
0 - 0
15.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Vorskla Poltava | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Chernihiv | 0 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 23.1% | 9.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 8.0% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Chernihiv carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 137 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Chernihiv +1.0, Vorskla Poltava -26.9.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Chernihiv
vs
Vorskla Poltava
Elo gapChernihiv +137
Home / draw / away57% / 18% / 25%
Expected home share69%
Combined Elo2942.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2942.4
Elo home share
69%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1522.2 | 1420.2 |
| Form Elo | 1513.9 | 1409.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1527 | 1464.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1488.8 | 1369 |
| Defense Elo | 1593.7 | 1560.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +1.0 | -26.9 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Chernihiv last-5 Elo change: +1.0; Vorskla Poltava last-5 Elo change: -26.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 50% | 17% |
| Defense | 75% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 2 | 0.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.30
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
58%
FT probability
2.5+
41%
FT probability
3.5+
29%
FT probability
BTTS
58%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-3
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 11 | 12 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 24 |
| Wins | 45% | 17% | 30% | 42% | 8% | 25% |
| Draws | 18% | 25% | 22% | 17% | 33% | 25% |
| Loses | 36% | 58% | 48% | 42% | 58% | 50% |
ChernihivLLWLLLDWWLDLDLWWDLWLLWD
Vorskla PoltavaWWDLLDWDLLLLDWDLDWLWLLLL
League goals
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 8 | 23 | 13 | 5 | 18 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 11 | 16 | 27 | 9 | 16 | 25 |
| GA avg | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 65% | 65% | 42% | 71% |
| 1.5 | 17% | 30% | 25% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 13% | 8% | 4% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
Penalties
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Chernihiv | Vorskla Poltava |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 75% | 25% |
| Def | 67% | 33% |
| Poisson Distribution | 79% | 21% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 72.8% | 27.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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