Sat, Sep 20 2025 • 16:15 • Go Goodwins Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.60 (league 1.62) 0.69 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
58.7% 24.8% 15.8%
best score tips
1 - 0
16.3%
2 - 0
13.0%
1 - 1
11.2%
Score & goals probability table
Penybont
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caernarfon Town 0 10.2% 7.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.3% 11.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 13.0% 8.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaernarfon TownPenybont
Played55
Form87%67%
Attack70%43%
Defense74%87%
Goals For (tot | avg)16 | 3.210 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caernarfon Town Penybont
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins100%50%71%50%67%57%
Draws0%50%29%0%33%14%
Loses0%0%0%50%0%29%

Form: Caernarfon Town: DWWWDWW • Penybont: WLWWLDW

League goals

Metric Caernarfon Town Penybont
HATHAT
GF total1113247411
GF avg3.73.33.41.81.31.6
GA total279325
GA avg0.71.81.30.80.70.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaernarfon TownPenybont
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%86%57%43%
1.586%43%43%29%
2.557%0%29%0%
3.543%0%14%0%
4.543%0%14%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaernarfon TownPenybont
HATHAT
Clean sheets101224
Failed to score000213

Penalties

MetricCaernarfon TownPenybont
Scored (total | %)1 | 50.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)1 | 50.00%0 | 0%
Total20

Streaks

MetricCaernarfon TownPenybont
Wins32
Draws11
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-12-55-02-3
Biggest losses——0-2—
Goals For6553
Goals Against1222

Model comparison

MetricCaernarfon TownPenybont
Form57%43%
Att62%38%
Def33%67%
Poisson Distribution71%29%
H2h40%60%
Goals38%62%
Total50.2%49.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Penybont

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ William Hill
Draw3.91 @ Pinnacle
Away2.77 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ Pinnacle
No2.42 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.61 @ Marathonbet
Under 2.52.25 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Caernarfon Town = 1.60 (league 1.62), Penybont = 0.69 (league 1.33)

Penybont
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caernarfon Town 0 10.2% 7.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 16.3% 11.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
2 13.0% 8.9% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
4 2.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 58.7% · Draw 24.8% · Away win 15.8%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1