Sun, Sep 28 2025 • 13:30 • The Oval
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.60 (league 1.66) 1.10 (league 1.37)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.1% 10.1% 7.1%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.8%
3 - 0
7.1%
4 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Cardiff MET
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caernarfon Town 0 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.3% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.4% 7.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
5 4.6% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
Played55
Form67%7%
Attack100%71%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.45 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.416 | 3.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.00
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

77%
FT probability

3.5+

55%
FT probability

BTTS

91%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Caernarfon Town Cardiff MET
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins75%60%67%0%0%0%
Draws0%40%22%40%75%56%
Loses25%0%11%60%25%44%

Form: Caernarfon Town: DWWWDWWLW • Cardiff MET: DDDDLLDLL

League goals

Metric Caernarfon Town Cardiff MET
HATHAT
GF total1215275611
GF avg3.03.03.01.01.51.2
GA total481214822
GA avg1.01.61.32.82.02.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%89%89%100%
1.578%44%33%67%
2.544%0%0%44%
3.533%0%0%33%
4.533%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
HATHAT
Clean sheets101000
Failed to score000101

Penalties

MetricCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
Wins30
Draws14
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-12-5——
Biggest losses1-2—0-44-2
Goals For6522
Goals Against2244

Model comparison

MetricCaernarfon TownCardiff MET
Form91%9%
Att71%29%
Def70%30%
Poisson Distribution80%20%
H2h62%38%
Goals50%50%
Total70.7%29.3%

Advice: Combo Winner : Caernarfon Town and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.60 @ William Hill
Draw4.50 @ Pinnacle
Away5.03 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.75 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.35 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.80 @ Bet365
No2.10 @ Unibet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Caernarfon Town = 3.60 (league 1.66), Cardiff MET = 1.10 (league 1.37)

Cardiff MET
0 1 2 3 4 5
Caernarfon Town 0 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.3% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
2 5.9% 6.5% 3.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1%
3 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
4 6.4% 7.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
5 4.6% 5.1% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.1% · Draw 10.1% · Away win 7.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1