Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 16:15 • Blue Turtle Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.38 (league 1.62) 2.26 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
22.5% 19.9% 54.5%
best score tips
1 - 2
9.2%
1 - 1
8.2%
1 - 3
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Colwyn Bay 0 2.6% 5.9% 6.7% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3%
1 3.6% 8.2% 9.2% 7.0% 3.9% 1.8%
2 2.5% 5.6% 6.4% 4.8% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6%
4 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
Played55
Form47%60%
Attack100%100%
Defense57%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.411 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)3 | 0.69 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Colwyn Bay Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins20%20%20%60%60%60%
Draws60%40%50%0%40%20%
Loses20%40%30%40%0%20%

Form: Colwyn Bay: DDLDDWWDLL • Caernarfon Town: DWWWDWWLWL

League goals

Metric Colwyn Bay Caernarfon Town
HATHAT
GF total7512121527
GF avg1.41.01.22.43.02.7
GA total5497815
GA avg1.00.80.91.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%90%90%
1.530%10%70%50%
2.520%0%40%10%
3.510%0%30%0%
4.50%0%30%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets112101
Failed to score134101

Penalties

MetricColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
Wins23
Draws21
Losses11

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-01-46-12-5
Biggest losses0-11-00-3—
Goals For3465
Goals Against2132

Model comparison

MetricColwyn BayCaernarfon Town
Form44%56%
Att39%61%
Def75%25%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h0%100%
Goals10%90%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Caernarfon Town

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.32 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.53 @ Pinnacle
Away2.23 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.73 @ 888Sport
Under 2.52.19 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ William Hill
No2.40 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Colwyn Bay = 1.38 (league 1.62), Caernarfon Town = 2.26 (league 1.33)

Caernarfon Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Colwyn Bay 0 2.6% 5.9% 6.7% 5.0% 2.9% 1.3%
1 3.6% 8.2% 9.2% 7.0% 3.9% 1.8%
2 2.5% 5.6% 6.4% 4.8% 2.7% 1.2%
3 1.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6%
4 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 22.5% · Draw 19.9% · Away win 54.5%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1