Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 13:00 • Essity Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
3.52 (league 1.62) 1.21 (league 1.33)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
65.6% 11.1% 8.7%
best score tips
3 - 1
7.8%
4 - 1
6.8%
2 - 1
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
llanelli AFC
0 1 2 3 4 5
GAP Connah S Quay FC 0 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.5% 6.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.4% 7.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 5.7% 6.8% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 4.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
Played55
Form33%47%
Attack86%43%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.23 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.412 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

1.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.80
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 4 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric GAP Connah S Quay FC llanelli AFC
HATHAT
Played4596410
Wins25%40%33%17%25%20%
Draws25%40%33%17%0%10%
Loses50%20%33%67%75%70%

Form: GAP Connah S Quay FC: DLWWLDWLD • llanelli AFC: LLLLLLLDWW

League goals

Metric GAP Connah S Quay FC llanelli AFC
HATHAT
GF total6511336
GF avg1.51.01.20.50.80.6
GA total8513121527
GA avg2.01.01.42.03.82.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%78%40%80%
1.522%44%20%60%
2.522%22%0%40%
3.50%0%0%40%
4.50%0%0%30%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
HATHAT
Clean sheets022202
Failed to score022426

Penalties

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
Wins20
Draws11
Losses17

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-21-31-01-2
Biggest losses1-33-00-56-0
Goals For3322
Goals Against3356

Model comparison

MetricGAP Connah S Quay FCllanelli AFC
Form42%58%
Att67%33%
Def63%37%
Poisson Distribution79%21%
H2h100%0%
Goals94%6%
Total69.0%31.0%

Advice: Winner : GAP Connah S Quay FC

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.26 @ Betano
Draw6.25 @ Bet365
Away11.50 @ Marathonbet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.60 @ 10Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes2.10 @ Unibet
No1.85 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): GAP Connah S Quay FC = 3.52 (league 1.62), llanelli AFC = 1.21 (league 1.33)

llanelli AFC
0 1 2 3 4 5
GAP Connah S Quay FC 0 0.9% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
1 3.1% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
2 5.5% 6.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1%
3 6.4% 7.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
4 5.7% 6.8% 4.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%
5 4.0% 4.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 65.6% · Draw 11.1% · Away win 8.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1