Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 10:00 •
Stadion Essen
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.75)
1.27 (league 1.59)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 36.1% | 26.8% | 36.7% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.7%
0 - 1
10.1%
1 - 0
10.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Carl Zeiss Jena W | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SGS Essen W | 0 | 7.9% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.7% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
SGS Essen W carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 59 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SGS Essen W -14.0, Carl Zeiss Jena W -20.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
SGS Essen W
vs
Carl Zeiss Jena W
Elo gapSGS Essen W +59
Home / draw / away44% / 23% / 33%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2837.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2837.6
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1430.6 | 1407 |
| Form Elo | 1414 | 1399.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1463.2 | 1460.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1389.8 | 1368.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1370.3 | 1358.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -14.0 | -20.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. SGS Essen W last-5 Elo change: -14.0; Carl Zeiss Jena W last-5 Elo change: -20.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 13% |
| Attack | 21% | 16% |
| Defense | 26% | 47% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 14 | 2.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
1.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
94%
FT probability
2.5+
66%
FT probability
3.5+
47%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-4
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 10 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| Wins | 10% | 8% | 9% | 0% | 18% | 9% |
| Draws | 20% | 33% | 27% | 27% | 18% | 23% |
| Loses | 70% | 58% | 64% | 73% | 64% | 68% |
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League goals
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 10 | 7 | 17 | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| GF avg | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| GA total | 29 | 23 | 52 | 29 | 24 | 53 |
| GA avg | 2.9 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 59% | 77% | 68% | 91% |
| 1.5 | 18% | 64% | 14% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 0% | 36% | 0% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 32% | 0% | 27% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 14% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 7 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-1 | — | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-8 | 5-0 | 0-6 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SGS Essen W | Carl Zeiss Jena W |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 57% | 43% |
| Def | 42% | 58% |
| Poisson Distribution | 50% | 50% |
| H2h | 93% | 7% |
| Goals | 88% | 13% |
| Total | 63.3% | 36.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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