Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
Crabble Athletic Ground
Expected Goals
1.41 (league 1.59)
1.90 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 28.3% | 22.3% | 47.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
9.3%
0 - 1
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Chesham United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Dover | 0 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 1.7% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away edge
Chesham United carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 66 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Dover -49.7, Chesham United +6.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Dover
vs
Chesham United
Elo gapChesham United +66
Home / draw / away32% / 22% / 46%
Expected home share41%
Combined Elo2972.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2972.9
Elo home share
41%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1435.8 | 1537.1 |
| Form Elo | 1404.4 | 1534 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1468.9 | 1511.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1474.5 | 1568.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1432.4 | 1516.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -49.7 | +6.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Dover last-5 Elo change: -49.7; Chesham United last-5 Elo change: +6.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 0% | 60% |
| Attack | 12% | 76% |
| Defense | 29% | 41% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 2 | 0.4 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 27% | 30% | 29% | 52% | 41% | 47% |
| Draws | 27% | 17% | 22% | 13% | 23% | 18% |
| Loses | 45% | 52% | 49% | 35% | 36% | 36% |
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Chesham UnitedWWDDLLDDLWDWLWWDLLLWLWWLWWDWWWWLDLWLLWLWWWWLL
League goals
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 36 | 22 | 58 | 36 | 30 | 66 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 37 | 36 | 73 | 23 | 30 | 53 |
| GA avg | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Dover | Chesham United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 84% | 76% | 73% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 49% | 36% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 7% | 22% | 20% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 4% | 16% | 2% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-2 | 4-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 2-5 | 4-0 | 0-2 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Dover | Chesham United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 0% | 100% |
| Att | 13% | 87% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 43% | 57% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 100% | 0% |
| Total | 33.7% | 66.3% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home4.50 @ Bet365
Draw4.10 @ Dafabet
Away1.81 @ Unibet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.58 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.55 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.40 @ William Hill
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League standings
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