Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
The Fusion Aviation Community Stadium
Expected Goals
1.51 (league 1.59)
0.79 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.9% | 26.0% | 19.6% |
best score tips
1 - 0
15.1%
1 - 1
12.0%
2 - 0
11.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Chippenham Town | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Horsham | 0 | 10.0% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 15.1% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 11.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Horsham carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 116 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Horsham -18.8, Chippenham Town -13.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Horsham
vs
Chippenham Town
Elo gapHorsham +116
Home / draw / away54% / 18% / 28%
Expected home share66%
Combined Elo2942.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2942.7
Elo home share
66%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1511.9 | 1430.8 |
| Form Elo | 1482.3 | 1440.4 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1520.2 | 1425.3 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.8 | 1451.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1613.9 | 1390.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | -13.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Horsham last-5 Elo change: -18.8; Chippenham Town last-5 Elo change: -13.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 27% |
| Attack | 24% | 24% |
| Defense | 71% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.20
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.10
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 32% | 30% | 31% | 43% | 5% | 24% |
| Draws | 36% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 18% | 20% |
| Loses | 32% | 43% | 38% | 35% | 77% | 56% |
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Chippenham TownDLLLWLLDLLDLLLDLDWDLLLWDDWLLLLWWLLLWWLWWLLWDL
League goals
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 23 | 50 | 31 | 20 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 25 | 27 | 52 | 32 | 45 | 77 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Horsham | Chippenham Town | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 73% | 73% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 33% | 31% | 53% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 7% | 4% | 27% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 12 |
Penalties
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-3 | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Horsham | Chippenham Town |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 65% | 35% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 75% | 25% |
| Total | 59.0% | 41.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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