Sat, Sep 6 2025 • 14:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.49 (league 1.49) 1.62 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.8% 23.8% 40.4%
best score tips
1 - 1
10.8%
1 - 2
8.7%
2 - 1
8.0%
Score & goals probability table
Worksop Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 4.5% 7.2% 5.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
1 6.7% 10.8% 8.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.9% 8.0% 6.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
3 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
4 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownWorksop Town
Played55
Form40%67%
Attack36%41%
Defense50%73%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.69 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.70
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

89%
FT probability

2.5+

63%
FT probability

3.5+

45%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Worksop Town
HATHAT
Played347437
Wins33%75%57%50%33%43%
Draws0%0%0%50%0%29%
Loses67%25%43%0%67%29%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLW • Worksop Town: LDLWWWD

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Worksop Town
HATHAT
GF total49138311
GF avg1.32.31.92.01.01.6
GA total65115510
GA avg2.01.31.61.31.71.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownWorksop Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.586%57%100%71%
1.557%43%43%43%
2.543%43%14%29%
3.50%14%0%0%
4.50%0%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownWorksop Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets123112
Failed to score011000

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownWorksop Town
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownWorksop Town
Wins23
Draws01
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-00-1
Biggest losses1-34-03-1
Goals For2331
Goals Against3433

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownWorksop Town
Form38%63%
Att47%53%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution49%51%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total42.3%58.0%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Worksop Town

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.40 @ William Hill
Draw3.62 @ Pinnacle
Away2.75 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.16 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Bet365
No2.35 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 1.49 (league 1.49), Worksop Town = 1.62 (league 1.23)

Worksop Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 4.5% 7.2% 5.9% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
1 6.7% 10.8% 8.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.9% 8.0% 6.5% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
3 2.5% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 0.7% 0.2%
4 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.8% · Draw 23.8% · Away win 40.4%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1