Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 14:00 • Deva Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.57 (league 1.49) 2.42 (league 1.23)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
23.9% 19.1% 52.7%
best score tips
1 - 2
8.5%
1 - 1
7.0%
1 - 3
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chester 0 1.8% 4.5% 5.4% 4.4% 2.6% 1.3%
1 2.9% 7.0% 8.5% 6.9% 4.1% 2.0%
2 2.3% 5.5% 6.7% 5.4% 3.3% 1.6%
3 1.2% 2.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
4 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChesterMerthyr Town
Played55
Form40%40%
Attack47%40%
Defense53%13%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.46 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.413 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

77%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chester Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played459549
Wins50%0%22%40%75%56%
Draws50%40%44%0%0%0%
Loses0%60%33%60%25%44%

Form: Chester: WLDLWLDDD • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWL

League goals

Metric Chester Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total74116915
GF avg1.80.81.21.22.31.7
GA total5121711516
GA avg1.32.41.92.21.31.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChesterMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.578%100%78%56%
1.533%56%56%44%
2.511%22%33%44%
3.50%11%0%22%
4.50%0%0%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChesterMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets000224
Failed to score022112

Penalties

MetricChesterMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricChesterMerthyr Town
Wins12
Draws10
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins3-22-00-3
Biggest losses4-00-54-0
Goals For3223
Goals Against2454

Model comparison

MetricChesterMerthyr Town
Form50%50%
Att54%46%
Def65%35%
Poisson Distribution41%59%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total52.5%47.5%

Advice: Double chance : Chester or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.55 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.20 @ Betfair
Away6.50 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.81 @ 188Bet
Under 2.52.07 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.94 @ 188Bet
No1.87 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chester = 1.57 (league 1.49), Merthyr Town = 2.42 (league 1.23)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chester 0 1.8% 4.5% 5.4% 4.4% 2.6% 1.3%
1 2.9% 7.0% 8.5% 6.9% 4.1% 2.0%
2 2.3% 5.5% 6.7% 5.4% 3.3% 1.6%
3 1.2% 2.9% 3.5% 2.8% 1.7% 0.8%
4 0.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3%
5 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 23.9% · Draw 19.1% · Away win 52.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1