Sat, Oct 18 2025 • 14:00 • The Brewery Field
Match Finished
Expected Goals
1.14 (league 1.48) 1.77 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
24.3% 23.4% 51.3%
best score tips
1 - 1
11.0%
1 - 2
9.7%
0 - 1
9.7%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Spennymoor Town 0 5.4% 9.7% 8.6% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8%
1 6.2% 11.0% 9.7% 5.8% 2.5% 0.9%
2 3.5% 6.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
Played55
Form67%47%
Attack43%30%
Defense74%48%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.212 | 2.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

86%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

43%
FT probability

BTTS

59%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Spennymoor Town Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played55105510
Wins60%60%60%40%60%50%
Draws20%20%20%0%20%10%
Loses20%20%20%60%20%40%

Form: Spennymoor Town: WWLWDLDWWW • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLD

League goals

Metric Spennymoor Town Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total6101661117
GF avg1.22.01.61.22.21.7
GA total571211718
GA avg1.01.41.22.21.41.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.570%40%80%60%
1.570%30%60%50%
2.520%30%30%40%
3.50%10%0%20%
4.50%10%0%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets426224
Failed to score213112

Penalties

MetricSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)2 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total21

Streaks

MetricSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
Wins22
Draws10
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-00-3
Biggest losses0-53-00-54-0
Goals For2323
Goals Against5354

Model comparison

MetricSpennymoor TownMerthyr Town
Form59%41%
Att59%41%
Def67%33%
Poisson Distribution42%58%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total56.8%43.3%

Advice: Double chance : Spennymoor Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.53 @ William Hill
Draw4.33 @ Bet365
Away5.50 @ William Hill

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.73 @ Bet365
No2.17 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.60 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.33 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Spennymoor Town = 1.14 (league 1.48), Merthyr Town = 1.77 (league 1.24)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Spennymoor Town 0 5.4% 9.7% 8.6% 5.1% 2.2% 0.8%
1 6.2% 11.0% 9.7% 5.8% 2.5% 0.9%
2 3.5% 6.2% 5.5% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
3 1.3% 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 24.3% · Draw 23.4% · Away win 51.3%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1