Tue, Oct 21 2025 • 18:45 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.81 (league 1.49) 1.76 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
16.8% 23.1% 59.2%
best score tips
0 - 1
13.5%
0 - 2
11.9%
1 - 1
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
Kidderminster Harriers
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 7.7% 13.5% 11.9% 7.0% 3.1% 1.1%
1 6.2% 10.9% 9.6% 5.6% 2.5% 0.9%
2 2.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
Played55
Form47%20%
Attack61%33%
Defense22%39%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.811 | 2.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

87%
FT probability

2.5+

61%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

75%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Kidderminster Harriers
HATHAT
Played56116612
Wins40%50%45%33%33%33%
Draws0%17%9%50%33%42%
Loses60%33%45%17%33%25%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDL • Kidderminster Harriers: WDDLWWWDDLLD

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Kidderminster Harriers
HATHAT
GF total615219615
GF avg1.22.51.91.51.01.3
GA total11132411617
GA avg2.22.22.21.81.01.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%64%100%75%
1.564%55%17%42%
2.536%45%8%8%
3.59%27%0%8%
4.50%18%0%8%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
HATHAT
Clean sheets224123
Failed to score112000

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
Wins23
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-33-20-1
Biggest losses0-54-01-52-1
Goals For2431
Goals Against5652

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownKidderminster Harriers
Form70%30%
Att65%35%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution34%66%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total53.3%46.8%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.85 @ Unibet
Draw3.85 @ Unibet
Away1.92 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.71 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.12 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.21 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 0.81 (league 1.49), Kidderminster Harriers = 1.76 (league 1.25)

Kidderminster Harriers
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 7.7% 13.5% 11.9% 7.0% 3.1% 1.1%
1 6.2% 10.9% 9.6% 5.6% 2.5% 0.9%
2 2.5% 4.4% 3.9% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
3 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
4 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 16.8% · Draw 23.1% · Away win 59.2%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1