Sat, Oct 25 2025 • 14:00 • Victory Park
Not Started
Expected Goals
4.47 (league 1.48) 2.62 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
41.0% 11.6% 14.6%
best score tips
4 - 2
4.8%
3 - 2
4.3%
5 - 2
4.3%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chorley 0 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
1 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%
2 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.9%
3 1.2% 3.3% 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%
4 1.4% 3.6% 4.8% 4.2% 2.7% 1.4%
5 1.2% 3.2% 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChorleyMerthyr Town
Played55
Form33%27%
Attack47%42%
Defense42%26%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.88 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.214 | 2.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

5.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

83%
FT probability

3.5+

59%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chorley Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played67136612
Wins67%29%46%33%50%42%
Draws33%14%23%0%17%8%
Loses0%57%31%67%33%50%

Form: Chorley: WWDWWLLWWLDLD • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLL

League goals

Metric Chorley Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total18102861521
GF avg3.01.42.21.02.51.8
GA total81220121325
GA avg1.31.71.52.02.22.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChorleyMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%85%75%67%
1.569%54%58%50%
2.554%15%33%42%
3.515%0%8%25%
4.50%0%0%17%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChorleyMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets202224
Failed to score033213

Penalties

MetricChorleyMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricChorleyMerthyr Town
Wins22
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-42-00-3
Biggest losses2-00-54-0
Goals For4424
Goals Against3356

Model comparison

MetricChorleyMerthyr Town
Form56%44%
Att53%47%
Def56%44%
Poisson Distribution65%35%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total57.5%42.5%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Chorley or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.58 @ Superbet
Draw4.55 @ Pinnacle
Away5.62 @ 1xBet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.62 @ Unibet
No2.38 @ William Hill

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Superbet
Under 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chorley = 4.47 (league 1.48), Merthyr Town = 2.62 (league 1.24)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chorley 0 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
1 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4%
2 0.8% 2.2% 2.9% 2.5% 1.6% 0.9%
3 1.2% 3.3% 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%
4 1.4% 3.6% 4.8% 4.2% 2.7% 1.4%
5 1.2% 3.2% 4.3% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 41.0% · Draw 11.6% · Away win 14.6%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1