Sat, Nov 1 2025 • 15:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.72 (league 1.53) 2.54 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
8.4% 14.8% 72.3%
best score tips
0 - 2
12.4%
0 - 3
10.5%
0 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Darlington 1883
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 3.9% 9.8% 12.4% 10.5% 6.6% 3.4%
1 2.8% 7.0% 8.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.9%
3 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
Played55
Form27%47%
Attack57%36%
Defense0%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.65 | 1
Goals Against (tot | avg)14 | 2.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

72%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Darlington 1883
HATHAT
Played67136713
Wins33%57%46%17%43%31%
Draws0%14%8%50%14%31%
Loses67%29%46%33%43%38%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLW • Darlington 1883: LWLDDLWDDLWLW

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Darlington 1883
HATHAT
GF total6172391120
GF avg1.02.41.81.51.61.5
GA total12132510818
GA avg2.01.91.91.71.11.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.577%62%92%77%
1.562%46%38%38%
2.531%38%15%23%
3.58%23%8%0%
4.50%15%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
HATHAT
Clean sheets235123
Failed to score213011

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
Wins21
Draws12
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-32-01-4
Biggest losses0-54-01-33-1
Goals For2424
Goals Against5633

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownDarlington 1883
Form36%64%
Att62%38%
Def26%74%
Poisson Distribution25%75%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total37.3%62.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Darlington 1883

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.24 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.97 @ Pinnacle
Away2.88 @ William Hill

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ William Hill
No2.70 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.54 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 0.72 (league 1.53), Darlington 1883 = 2.54 (league 1.26)

Darlington 1883
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 3.9% 9.8% 12.4% 10.5% 6.6% 3.4%
1 2.8% 7.0% 8.9% 7.5% 4.8% 2.4%
2 1.0% 2.5% 3.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.9%
3 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%
4 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 8.4% · Draw 14.8% · Away win 72.3%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1