Tue, Nov 4 2025 • 19:45 • New Bucks Head
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.47 (league 1.54) 2.51 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
36.2% 18.3% 37.3%
best score tips
2 - 2
6.6%
2 - 3
5.5%
3 - 2
5.4%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
AFC Telford United 0 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6%
1 1.7% 4.2% 5.3% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4%
2 2.1% 5.2% 6.6% 5.5% 3.5% 1.7%
3 1.7% 4.3% 5.4% 4.6% 2.9% 1.4%
4 1.1% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 1.8% 0.9%
5 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack73%100%
Defense36%9%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.611 | 2.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)7 | 1.410 | 2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

72%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AFC Telford United Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played76137714
Wins57%0%31%43%57%50%
Draws14%50%31%0%14%7%
Loses29%50%38%57%29%43%

Form: AFC Telford United: DDLLDWWLLLWDW • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWW

League goals

Metric AFC Telford United Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total1462091726
GF avg2.01.01.51.32.41.9
GA total91120131326
GA avg1.31.81.51.91.91.9

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%92%79%64%
1.538%38%64%43%
2.523%23%36%36%
3.58%0%7%21%
4.50%0%0%14%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets101235
Failed to score112213

Penalties

MetricAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total11

Streaks

MetricAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
Wins22
Draws21
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-1—3-10-3
Biggest losses1-33-10-54-0
Goals For4234
Goals Against3356

Model comparison

MetricAFC Telford UnitedMerthyr Town
Form50%50%
Att42%58%
Def59%41%
Poisson Distribution52%48%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total50.8%49.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : AFC Telford United or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.72 @ Betano
Draw4.19 @ Pinnacle
Away4.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.46 @ Unibet
Under 2.52.63 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ Bet365
No2.65 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): AFC Telford United = 2.47 (league 1.54), Merthyr Town = 2.51 (league 1.24)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
AFC Telford United 0 0.7% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.6%
1 1.7% 4.2% 5.3% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4%
2 2.1% 5.2% 6.6% 5.5% 3.5% 1.7%
3 1.7% 4.3% 5.4% 4.6% 2.9% 1.4%
4 1.1% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 1.8% 0.9%
5 0.5% 1.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 36.2% · Draw 18.3% · Away win 37.3%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1