Tue, Nov 4 2025 • 19:45 • Victory Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
4.91 (league 1.54) 0.79 (league 1.24)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
57.9% 3.6% 1.6%
best score tips
4 - 0
8.1%
5 - 0
8.0%
3 - 0
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
Alfreton Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chorley 0 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 4.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 8.0% 6.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricChorleyAlfreton Town
Played55
Form13%13%
Attack64%27%
Defense0%0%
Goals For (tot | avg)7 | 1.43 | 0.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.213 | 2.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

70%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Chorley Alfreton Town
HATHAT
Played78157714
Wins57%25%40%29%0%14%
Draws29%13%20%29%43%36%
Loses14%63%40%43%57%50%

Form: Chorley: WWDWWLLWWLDLDLL • Alfreton Town: DLLDWLLDWLDLLD

League goals

Metric Chorley Alfreton Town
HATHAT
GF total1811295510
GF avg2.61.41.90.70.70.7
GA total10142492029
GA avg1.41.81.61.32.92.1

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineChorleyAlfreton Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.573%87%57%86%
1.560%60%14%57%
2.547%13%0%29%
3.513%0%0%14%
4.50%0%0%14%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricChorleyAlfreton Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets202202
Failed to score134336

Penalties

MetricChorleyAlfreton Town
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total10

Streaks

MetricChorleyAlfreton Town
Wins21
Draws11
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins4-01-42-0—
Biggest losses0-22-00-36-0
Goals For4422
Goals Against3336

Model comparison

MetricChorleyAlfreton Town
Form50%50%
Att70%30%
Def54%46%
Poisson Distribution87%13%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total60.2%39.8%

Advice: Combo Winner : Chorley and +1.5 goals

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ 10Bet
Draw4.00 @ Unibet
Away5.50 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.70 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.20 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.81 @ Unibet
No2.20 @ William Hill
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Chorley = 4.91 (league 1.54), Alfreton Town = 0.79 (league 1.24)

Alfreton Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Chorley 0 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 1.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
2 4.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
3 6.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 8.1% 6.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
5 8.0% 6.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 57.9% · Draw 3.6% · Away win 1.6%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1