Tue, Nov 25 2025 • 19:45 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.09 (league 1.53) 0.86 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
63.9% 19.8% 14.2%
best score tips
2 - 0
11.5%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
Leamington
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 5.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.0% 9.4% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.5% 9.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 8.0% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 4.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownLeamington
Played55
Form100%7%
Attack100%6%
Defense44%56%
Goals For (tot | avg)20 | 41 | 0.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

88%
FT probability

2.5+

62%
FT probability

3.5+

44%
FT probability

BTTS

70%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Leamington
HATHAT
Played99188917
Wins56%67%61%38%0%18%
Draws0%11%6%0%44%24%
Loses44%22%33%63%56%59%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWW • Leamington: DLDWLWWLLDLLLDLLL

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Leamington
HATHAT
GF total1825436511
GF avg2.02.82.40.80.60.6
GA total16183491423
GA avg1.82.01.91.11.61.4

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownLeamington
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%72%47%88%
1.572%50%18%41%
2.550%33%0%6%
3.522%17%0%0%
4.56%11%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownLeamington
HATHAT
Clean sheets235112
Failed to score213459

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownLeamington
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownLeamington
Wins22
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-32-1—
Biggest losses0-54-00-22-0
Goals For6422
Goals Against5623

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownLeamington
Form94%6%
Att95%5%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution73%27%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total76.5%23.5%

Advice: Winner : Merthyr Town

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.59 @ 188Bet
Draw4.19 @ Pinnacle
Away5.44 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.57 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.40 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.67 @ Bet365
No2.28 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.09 (league 1.53), Leamington = 0.86 (league 1.26)

Leamington
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 5.2% 4.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
1 11.0% 9.4% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%
2 11.5% 9.8% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
3 8.0% 6.9% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
4 4.2% 3.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
5 1.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 63.9% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 14.2%

Vtot 4 , Vtod1