Tue, Dec 16 2025 • 19:45 • The Impact Arena
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.89 (league 1.53) 0.86 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
34.1% 33.4% 32.4%
best score tips
0 - 0
17.4%
1 - 0
15.5%
0 - 1
14.9%
Score & goals probability table
Southport
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alfreton Town 0 17.4% 14.9% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.5% 13.3% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.9% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAlfreton TownSouthport
Played55
Form27%60%
Attack33%67%
Defense33%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)5 | 110 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

1.70
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

73%
FT probability

2.5+

51%
FT probability

3.5+

36%
FT probability

BTTS

68%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Alfreton Town Southport
HATHAT
Played91120101020
Wins33%9%20%20%30%25%
Draws22%36%30%50%10%30%
Loses44%55%50%30%60%45%

Form: Alfreton Town: DLLDWLLDWLDLLDWLWLDL • Southport: LWLLLLLDLWDLLDWWDDWD

League goals

Metric Alfreton Town Southport
HATHAT
GF total791615924
GF avg0.80.80.81.50.91.2
GA total112839141731
GA avg1.22.52.01.41.71.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAlfreton TownSouthport
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.560%80%65%85%
1.520%50%50%60%
2.50%25%5%10%
3.50%15%0%0%
4.50%15%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAlfreton TownSouthport
HATHAT
Clean sheets224303
Failed to score448257

Penalties

MetricAlfreton TownSouthport
Scored (total | %)0 | 0%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total01

Streaks

MetricAlfreton TownSouthport
Wins12
Draws12
Losses25

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins2-00-13-11-2
Biggest losses0-36-02-32-0
Goals For2232
Goals Against3632

Model comparison

MetricAlfreton TownSouthport
Form31%69%
Att33%67%
Def41%59%
Poisson Distribution51%49%
H2h50%50%
Goals47%53%
Total42.2%57.8%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Southport

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.55 @ Bet365
Draw3.32 @ Pinnacle
Away2.71 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.10 @ 10Bet
Under 2.51.81 @ 188Bet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.84 @ Pinnacle
No2.00 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Alfreton Town = 0.89 (league 1.53), Southport = 0.86 (league 1.26)

Southport
0 1 2 3 4 5
Alfreton Town 0 17.4% 14.9% 6.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.5% 13.3% 5.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
2 6.9% 5.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
3 2.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 34.1% · Draw 33.4% · Away win 32.4%

vtt 8 , vtd1