Sat, Nov 29 2025 • 15:00 • The Tarmac Silverlands Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.74 (league 1.53) 3.15 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
29.6% 16.4% 38.7%
best score tips
2 - 3
5.4%
2 - 2
5.2%
3 - 3
4.9%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Buxton 0 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7%
1 0.8% 2.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0%
2 1.0% 3.3% 5.2% 5.4% 4.3% 2.7%
3 0.9% 3.0% 4.7% 4.9% 3.9% 2.4%
4 0.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7%
5 0.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricBuxtonMerthyr Town
Played55
Form20%100%
Attack43%100%
Defense21%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)6 | 1.221 | 4.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

80%
FT probability

3.5+

57%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Buxton Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played991810919
Wins56%33%44%60%67%63%
Draws0%22%11%0%11%5%
Loses44%44%44%40%22%32%

Form: Buxton: WLLWLDLWDWWWWLLLWL • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWW

League goals

Metric Buxton Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total191332222547
GF avg2.11.41.82.22.82.5
GA total131629171835
GA avg1.41.81.61.72.01.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineBuxtonMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.594%83%84%74%
1.556%61%74%47%
2.511%17%53%32%
3.56%0%26%16%
4.56%0%5%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricBuxtonMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets213235
Failed to score011213

Penalties

MetricBuxtonMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)1 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total13

Streaks

MetricBuxtonMerthyr Town
Wins42
Draws11
Losses32

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-01-26-20-3
Biggest losses2-33-00-54-0
Goals For6264
Goals Against3356

Model comparison

MetricBuxtonMerthyr Town
Form17%83%
Att22%78%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution47%53%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total32.8%67.3%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Buxton or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.88 @ Betano
Draw4.46 @ Pinnacle
Away3.80 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.48 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.66 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.51 @ Pinnacle
No2.59 @ 1xBet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Buxton = 2.74 (league 1.53), Merthyr Town = 3.15 (league 1.25)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Buxton 0 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7%
1 0.8% 2.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.1% 2.0%
2 1.0% 3.3% 5.2% 5.4% 4.3% 2.7%
3 0.9% 3.0% 4.7% 4.9% 3.9% 2.4%
4 0.7% 2.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.7% 1.7%
5 0.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 0.9%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 29.6% · Draw 16.4% · Away win 38.7%

Vtot 2 , Vtod1