Sat, Dec 6 2025 • 15:00 • Mill Farm
Not Started
Expected Goals
2.60 (league 1.53) 3.69 (league 1.25)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
21.8% 14.6% 42.7%
best score tips
2 - 3
5.3%
2 - 4
4.8%
3 - 3
4.6%
Score & goals probability table
Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
AFC Fylde 0 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1%
1 0.5% 1.8% 3.3% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7%
2 0.6% 2.3% 4.3% 5.3% 4.8% 3.6%
3 0.5% 2.0% 3.7% 4.6% 4.2% 3.1%
4 0.4% 1.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0%
5 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
Played55
Form60%100%
Attack86%100%
Defense43%43%
Goals For (tot | avg)12 | 2.419 | 3.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)8 | 1.68 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.90
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.80
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

82%
FT probability

3.5+

59%
FT probability

BTTS

85%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric AFC Fylde Merthyr Town
HATHAT
Played101020101020
Wins50%90%70%60%70%65%
Draws20%0%10%0%10%5%
Loses30%10%20%40%20%30%

Form: AFC Fylde: WLWWWWDWWDLWWWWLWLWW • Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWW

League goals

Metric AFC Fylde Merthyr Town
HATHAT
GF total212748222749
GF avg2.12.72.42.22.72.5
GA total17825171936
GA avg1.70.81.31.71.91.8

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%75%85%75%
1.570%35%75%45%
2.540%10%50%30%
3.515%5%25%15%
4.515%0%5%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets145235
Failed to score000213

Penalties

MetricAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total43

Streaks

MetricAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
Wins42
Draws11
Losses12

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-56-20-3
Biggest losses2-42-10-54-0
Goals For5564
Goals Against4256

Model comparison

MetricAFC FyldeMerthyr Town
Form38%63%
Att39%61%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total42.5%57.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Merthyr Town and +2.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.62 @ Betano
Draw4.36 @ Pinnacle
Away5.10 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.86 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.58 @ 188Bet
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): AFC Fylde = 2.60 (league 1.53), Merthyr Town = 3.69 (league 1.25)

Merthyr Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
AFC Fylde 0 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.1%
1 0.5% 1.8% 3.3% 4.0% 3.7% 2.7%
2 0.6% 2.3% 4.3% 5.3% 4.8% 3.6%
3 0.5% 2.0% 3.7% 4.6% 4.2% 3.1%
4 0.4% 1.3% 2.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.0%
5 0.2% 0.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 21.8% · Draw 14.6% · Away win 42.7%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1