Sat, Dec 20 2025 • 15:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.30 (league 1.53) 2.96 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
27.5% 17.1% 44.6%
best score tips
2 - 2
6.0%
2 - 3
5.9%
1 - 2
5.2%
Score & goals probability table
Curzon Ashton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 0.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0%
1 1.2% 3.5% 5.2% 5.2% 3.8% 2.3%
2 1.4% 4.1% 6.0% 5.9% 4.4% 2.6%
3 1.0% 3.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.4% 2.0%
4 0.6% 1.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2%
5 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
Played55
Form80%47%
Attack100%53%
Defense60%40%
Goals For (tot | avg)15 | 38 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.29 | 1.8

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.00
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

4.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

75%
FT probability

3.5+

54%
FT probability

BTTS

81%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Curzon Ashton
HATHAT
Played101121111021
Wins60%64%62%36%40%38%
Draws0%9%5%18%50%33%
Loses40%27%33%45%10%29%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWL • Curzon Ashton: DDDLWLWDLWWLWWDDLWDLW

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Curzon Ashton
HATHAT
GF total222749142236
GF avg2.22.52.31.32.21.7
GA total172037151631
GA avg1.71.81.81.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%76%90%76%
1.571%43%52%48%
2.548%29%24%24%
3.524%14%5%0%
4.55%10%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
HATHAT
Clean sheets235325
Failed to score224202

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%0 | 0%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total30

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
Wins82
Draws13
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-00-4
Biggest losses0-54-00-33-2
Goals For6434
Goals Against5633

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownCurzon Ashton
Form63%37%
Att65%35%
Def60%40%
Poisson Distribution45%55%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total58.3%41.8%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.17 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.06 @ Pinnacle
Away3.20 @ 188Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ Unibet
Under 2.53.00 @ Bet365

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.42 @ 188Bet
No3.00 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.30 (league 1.53), Curzon Ashton = 2.96 (league 1.26)

Curzon Ashton
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 0.5% 1.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0%
1 1.2% 3.5% 5.2% 5.2% 3.8% 2.3%
2 1.4% 4.1% 6.0% 5.9% 4.4% 2.6%
3 1.0% 3.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.4% 2.0%
4 0.6% 1.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1.9% 1.2%
5 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 27.5% · Draw 17.1% · Away win 44.6%

vtt 3 , vtd1