Tue, Dec 30 2025 • 19:45 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.30 (league 1.53) 1.40 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
54.8% 19.6% 22.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.2%
1 - 1
8.0%
3 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
Hereford
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.7% 8.0% 5.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
2 6.6% 9.2% 6.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
3 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownHereford
Played55
Form80%27%
Attack58%32%
Defense74%58%
Goals For (tot | avg)11 | 2.26 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)5 | 18 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Hereford
HATHAT
Played11122391120
Wins64%67%65%22%27%25%
Draws0%8%4%33%18%25%
Loses36%25%30%44%55%50%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWW • Hereford: LLWLLWDDWWLDLDLLDWLL

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Hereford
HATHAT
GF total243054121224
GF avg2.22.52.31.31.11.2
GA total182139161834
GA avg1.61.81.71.81.61.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownHereford
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%78%75%90%
1.574%39%40%50%
2.548%26%5%20%
3.522%13%0%10%
4.54%9%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownHereford
HATHAT
Clean sheets235112
Failed to score224235

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownHereford
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownHereford
Wins82
Draws12
Losses22

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-32-00-2
Biggest losses0-54-01-43-0
Goals For6432
Goals Against5644

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownHereford
Form75%25%
Att65%35%
Def62%38%
Poisson Distribution64%36%
H2h0%0%
Goals0%0%
Total66.5%33.5%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.92 @ Pinnacle
Draw4.18 @ Pinnacle
Away3.40 @ Betano

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.84 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.46 @ 188Bet
No2.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.30 (league 1.53), Hereford = 1.40 (league 1.26)

Hereford
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.5% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.7% 8.0% 5.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.3%
2 6.6% 9.2% 6.4% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%
3 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 54.8% · Draw 19.6% · Away win 22.2%

vtt 14 , vtd1