Tue, Jan 27 2026 • 19:45 •
Penydarren Park
Expected Goals
2.06 (league 1.53)
2.01 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | 20.5% | 37.0% |
best score tips
2 - 2
7.3%
2 - 1
7.3%
1 - 2
7.1%
Score & goals probability table
| AFC Telford United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Merthyr Town | 0 | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 87% | 80% |
| Attack | 87% | 100% |
| Defense | 60% | 67% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 16 | 3.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
72%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
- no cards data
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 13 | 27 | 12 | 13 | 25 |
| Wins | 64% | 69% | 67% | 50% | 23% | 36% |
| Draws | 7% | 8% | 7% | 25% | 38% | 32% |
| Loses | 29% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 38% | 32% |
Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWW • AFC Telford United: DDLLDWWLLLWDWLDLDWDDWWWLW
League goals
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 29 | 35 | 64 | 26 | 23 | 49 |
| GF avg | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 17 | 20 | 37 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 85% | 74% | 88% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 74% | 41% | 52% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 26% | 28% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 11% | 12% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 7% | 7% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 8 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-2 | 0-3 | 4-0 | 0-8 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 4-0 | 2-4 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Merthyr Town | AFC Telford United |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 52% | 48% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 45% | 55% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 100% | 0% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Advice: Combo Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw and +1.5 goals
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…
Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.06 (league 1.53), AFC Telford United = 2.01 (league 1.26)
| AFC Telford United | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Merthyr Town | 0 | 1.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 2.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
Outcome probabilities: Home win 39.0% · Draw 20.5% · Away win 37.0%
vtt 1 , vtd1