Tue, Jan 27 2026 • 19:45 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.02 (league 1.56) 2.01 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
38.2% 20.6% 37.8%
best score tips
2 - 2
7.3%
2 - 1
7.3%
1 - 2
7.3%
Score & goals probability table
AFC Telford United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.8% 3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.6% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0%
2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
4 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
Played55
Form67%80%
Attack56%83%
Defense67%72%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 215 | 3
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.25 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

4.30
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.90
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.10
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

51%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town AFC Telford United
HATHAT
Played141428131326
Wins64%64%64%54%23%38%
Draws7%7%7%23%38%31%
Loses29%29%29%23%38%31%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWL • AFC Telford United: DDLLDWWLLLWDWLDLDWDDWWWLWW

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town AFC Telford United
HATHAT
GF total293564282351
GF avg2.12.52.32.21.82.0
GA total202545182038
GA avg1.41.81.61.41.51.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.582%75%88%85%
1.571%39%54%38%
2.543%25%27%19%
3.521%11%12%4%
4.57%7%4%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
HATHAT
Clean sheets437224
Failed to score235123

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total41

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
Wins83
Draws12
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-34-00-8
Biggest losses0-54-02-43-0
Goals For6548
Goals Against5643

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownAFC Telford United
Form45%55%
Att40%60%
Def45%55%
Poisson Distribution53%47%
H2h100%0%
Goals67%33%
Total50.0%50.0%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.59 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.83 @ Pinnacle
Away2.48 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.88 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.47 @ 188Bet
No2.91 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.02 (league 1.56), AFC Telford United = 2.01 (league 1.26)

AFC Telford United
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.8% 3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5%
1 3.6% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 2.4% 1.0%
2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 2.5% 1.0%
3 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
4 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 38.2% · Draw 20.6% · Away win 37.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1