Sat, Feb 7 2026 • 15:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.31 (league 1.56) 1.78 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.0% 19.8% 29.2%
best score tips
2 - 1
7.9%
2 - 2
7.1%
1 - 1
6.9%
Score & goals probability table
Chorley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.7% 3.0% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
1 3.9% 6.9% 6.1% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6%
2 4.4% 7.9% 7.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
3 3.4% 6.1% 5.4% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

🔮

Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownChorley
Played55
Form40%33%
Attack43%33%
Defense48%62%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.80
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.20
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

78%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Chorley
HATHAT
Played151530151328
Wins60%60%60%47%15%32%
Draws7%7%7%27%31%29%
Loses33%33%33%27%54%39%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWLLL • Chorley: WWDWWLLWWLDLDLLLDWDLDWLWDLLD

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Chorley
HATHAT
GF total303666271845
GF avg2.02.42.21.81.41.6
GA total242852182442
GA avg1.61.91.71.21.81.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownChorley
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.583%77%71%86%
1.567%43%46%50%
2.540%30%32%14%
3.520%13%11%0%
4.57%7%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownChorley
HATHAT
Clean sheets437404
Failed to score235448

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownChorley
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total42

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownChorley
Wins82
Draws11
Losses23

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-34-01-4
Biggest losses0-54-00-23-1
Goals For6544
Goals Against5633

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownChorley
Form55%45%
Att56%44%
Def42%58%
Poisson Distribution60%40%
H2h100%0%
Goals100%0%
Total53.3%46.8%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

💸

Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.55 @ Bet365
Draw3.81 @ Pinnacle
Away2.45 @ 10Bet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.50 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.61 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.53 @ 188Bet
No2.88 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
📊

League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.31 (league 1.56), Chorley = 1.78 (league 1.26)

Chorley
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.7% 3.0% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3%
1 3.9% 6.9% 6.1% 3.7% 1.6% 0.6%
2 4.4% 7.9% 7.1% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
3 3.4% 6.1% 5.4% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.0% 3.5% 3.1% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.9% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.0% · Draw 19.8% · Away win 29.2%

vtt 1 , vtd1