Sat, Feb 14 2026 • 15:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.05 (league 1.56) 1.76 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
43.4% 21.0% 32.8%
best score tips
2 - 1
8.2%
1 - 1
8.0%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
Bedford Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3%
1 4.5% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.2% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
3 3.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
4 1.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2%
5 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownBedford Town
Played55
Form7%33%
Attack29%43%
Defense21%50%
Goals For (tot | avg)4 | 0.86 | 1.2
Goals Against (tot | avg)11 | 2.27 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.30
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

68%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

79%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Bedford Town
HATHAT
Played161632161632
Wins56%56%56%25%25%25%
Draws6%13%9%25%31%28%
Loses38%31%34%50%44%47%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLD • Bedford Town: DLWLLLDDLWDWWWLLWLLLDLDDWLLWDLDL

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Bedford Town
HATHAT
GF total323668272148
GF avg2.02.32.11.71.31.5
GA total272855302555
GA avg1.71.81.71.91.61.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownBedford Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.581%75%81%84%
1.566%44%50%63%
2.538%31%16%19%
3.519%13%3%6%
4.56%6%0%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownBedford Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets448325
Failed to score246336

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownBedford Town
Scored (total | %)4 | 100.00%4 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total44

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownBedford Town
Wins83
Draws12
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins6-20-33-00-2
Biggest losses0-54-00-33-1
Goals For6542
Goals Against5643

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownBedford Town
Form17%83%
Att40%60%
Def39%61%
Poisson Distribution55%45%
H2h100%0%
Goals57%43%
Total41.6%58.4%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Bedford Town

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.90 @ SBO
Draw4.29 @ Pinnacle
Away3.60 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.44 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.77 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ 188Bet
No2.75 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.05 (league 1.56), Bedford Town = 1.76 (league 1.26)

Bedford Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3%
1 4.5% 8.0% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
2 4.7% 8.2% 7.2% 4.2% 1.9% 0.7%
3 3.2% 5.6% 4.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
4 1.6% 2.9% 2.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2%
5 0.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 43.4% · Draw 21.0% · Away win 32.8%

vtt 1 , vtd1