Tue, Mar 10 2026 • 19:45 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.53 (league 1.56) 1.89 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
47.9% 18.8% 27.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
7.3%
2 - 2
6.9%
3 - 1
6.1%
Score & goals probability table
Chester
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.0% 5.7% 5.4% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6%
2 3.8% 7.3% 6.9% 4.3% 2.0% 0.8%
3 3.2% 6.1% 5.8% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7%
4 2.1% 3.9% 3.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4%
5 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownChester
Played55
Form60%80%
Attack100%69%
Defense31%46%
Goals For (tot | avg)15 | 39 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.87 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.70
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.60
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

71%
FT probability

3.5+

50%
FT probability

BTTS

80%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Chester
HATHAT
Played181937191837
Wins56%58%57%37%39%38%
Draws6%11%8%42%17%30%
Loses39%32%35%21%44%32%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLDWLWLW • Chester: WLDLWLDDDDDWLDWDWDWWLLWLLDWLLLWDWWLWW

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Chester
HATHAT
GF total404383292554
GF avg2.22.32.21.51.41.5
GA total313364263258
GA avg1.71.71.71.41.81.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownChester
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%78%86%84%
1.568%43%51%43%
2.538%32%8%22%
3.519%11%0%5%
4.58%5%0%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownChester
HATHAT
Clean sheets448336
Failed to score246145

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownChester
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total55

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownChester
Wins82
Draws15
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-10-32-01-3
Biggest losses0-54-01-34-0
Goals For7533
Goals Against5635

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownChester
Form43%57%
Att63%38%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution59%41%
H2h50%50%
Goals50%50%
Total51.5%48.7%

Advice: Combo Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home3.13 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Pinnacle
Away2.28 @ Unibet

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.62 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.38 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.48 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.53 (league 1.56), Chester = 1.89 (league 1.26)

Chester
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.0% 5.7% 5.4% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6%
2 3.8% 7.3% 6.9% 4.3% 2.0% 0.8%
3 3.2% 6.1% 5.8% 3.7% 1.7% 0.7%
4 2.1% 3.9% 3.7% 2.3% 1.1% 0.4%
5 1.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 47.9% · Draw 18.8% · Away win 27.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1