Sat, Mar 14 2026 • 15:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.38 (league 1.57) 1.76 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
48.5% 19.5% 27.6%
best score tips
2 - 1
7.9%
2 - 2
7.0%
1 - 1
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
Spennymoor Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.8% 6.7% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
2 4.5% 7.9% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 3.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
Played55
Form40%27%
Attack53%12%
Defense41%53%
Goals For (tot | avg)9 | 1.82 | 0.4
Goals Against (tot | avg)10 | 28 | 1.6

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.50
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

69%
FT probability

3.5+

49%
FT probability

BTTS

73%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

0 - 0 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Spennymoor Town
HATHAT
Played191938171835
Wins53%58%55%35%39%37%
Draws5%11%8%29%17%23%
Loses42%32%37%35%44%40%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLDWLWLWL • Spennymoor Town: WWLWDLDWWWWLLDWLLDWDDLDLLWLLWWLWLDL

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Spennymoor Town
HATHAT
GF total414384212344
GF avg2.22.32.21.21.31.3
GA total333366293059
GA avg1.71.71.71.71.71.7

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.584%79%63%66%
1.566%45%43%46%
2.537%32%11%26%
3.518%11%3%17%
4.58%5%3%11%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
HATHAT
Clean sheets4487512
Failed to score2466713

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%5 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total55

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
Wins84
Draws12
Losses42

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-10-36-40-3
Biggest losses0-54-00-56-0
Goals For7563
Goals Against5656

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownSpennymoor Town
Form60%40%
Att82%18%
Def44%56%
Poisson Distribution58%42%
H2h0%100%
Goals40%60%
Total56.8%43.2%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.00 @ William Hill
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away3.39 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.52 @ 188Bet
No2.78 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.46 @ Pinnacle
Under 2.52.62 @ Bet365
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.38 (league 1.57), Spennymoor Town = 1.76 (league 1.26)

Spennymoor Town
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 1.6% 2.8% 2.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
1 3.8% 6.7% 5.9% 3.4% 1.5% 0.5%
2 4.5% 7.9% 7.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.6%
3 3.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5%
4 2.1% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 48.5% · Draw 19.5% · Away win 27.6%

vtt 1 , vtd1