Fri, Apr 3 2026 • 14:00 • Penydarren Park
Match Finished
Expected Goals
2.24 (league 1.57) 1.43 (league 1.26)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
53.2% 20.1% 23.7%
best score tips
2 - 1
9.1%
1 - 1
8.2%
3 - 1
6.8%
Score & goals probability table
Oxford City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.7% 8.2% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 9.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.8% 6.8% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.7% 3.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricMerthyr TownOxford City
Played55
Form20%67%
Attack73%91%
Defense0%36%
Goals For (tot | avg)8 | 1.610 | 2
Goals Against (tot | avg)13 | 2.67 | 1.4

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.20
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

3.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

3.40
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

67%
FT probability

3.5+

48%
FT probability

BTTS

76%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Merthyr Town Oxford City
HATHAT
Played202040211940
Wins50%55%53%43%16%30%
Draws5%10%8%10%37%23%
Loses45%35%40%48%47%48%

Form: Merthyr Town: WWLWLLWWLDLLWWWWWWWWLWWDWWWLLLLDWLWLWLLL • Oxford City: LWDLLLWLLLDLLDLWWLDLLWDLDWLWLLDWLDWLDWWW

League goals

Metric Merthyr Town Oxford City
HATHAT
GF total434487331952
GF avg2.22.22.21.61.01.3
GA total363773303161
GA avg1.81.91.81.41.61.5

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineMerthyr TownOxford City
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.585%80%70%78%
1.565%48%35%45%
2.535%35%15%20%
3.518%13%5%8%
4.58%5%5%3%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricMerthyr TownOxford City
HATHAT
Clean sheets448639
Failed to score2464812

Penalties

MetricMerthyr TownOxford City
Scored (total | %)5 | 100.00%1 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total51

Streaks

MetricMerthyr TownOxford City
Wins82
Draws11
Losses43

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins7-10-35-01-3
Biggest losses0-54-01-54-0
Goals For7553
Goals Against5654

Model comparison

MetricMerthyr TownOxford City
Form23%77%
Att44%56%
Def35%65%
Poisson Distribution62%38%
H2h100%0%
Goals75%25%
Total47.8%52.2%

Advice: Double chance : Merthyr Town or draw

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.30 @ Pinnacle
Draw3.75 @ Dafabet
Away2.83 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.55 @ Unibet

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.75 @ Betfair
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Merthyr Town = 2.24 (league 1.57), Oxford City = 1.43 (league 1.26)

Oxford City
0 1 2 3 4 5
Merthyr Town 0 2.5% 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.7% 8.2% 5.8% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.4% 9.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.3%
3 4.8% 6.8% 4.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2%
4 2.7% 3.8% 2.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1%
5 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 53.2% · Draw 20.1% · Away win 23.7%

vtt 1 , vtd1