Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
The Impact Arena
Expected Goals
1.26 (league 1.57)
1.57 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 30.5% | 24.8% | 44.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
11.7%
0 - 1
9.2%
1 - 2
9.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Curzon Ashton | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Alfreton Town | 0 | 5.9% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Alfreton Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 64 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Alfreton Town +25.8, Curzon Ashton -17.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Alfreton Town
vs
Curzon Ashton
Elo gapAlfreton Town +64
Home / draw / away46% / 23% / 31%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo2940.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2940.2
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1484.6 | 1455.6 |
| Form Elo | 1503.2 | 1437.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1491.6 | 1512.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1414.1 | 1495.9 |
| Defense Elo | 1429.8 | 1360.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +25.8 | -17.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Alfreton Town last-5 Elo change: +25.8; Curzon Ashton last-5 Elo change: -17.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 60% | 27% |
| Attack | 47% | 26% |
| Defense | 63% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.70
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 36% | 17% | 27% | 30% | 27% | 29% |
| Draws | 32% | 26% | 29% | 17% | 36% | 27% |
| Loses | 32% | 57% | 44% | 52% | 36% | 44% |
Alfreton TownDLLDWLLDWLDLLDWLWLDLDLWLLWDLWWLLDLLWDLLWDWDDW
Curzon AshtonDDDLWLWDLWWLWWDDLWDLWLLWLLLWDDWLWLLLDLLDLDLWL
League goals
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 24 | 22 | 46 | 29 | 35 | 64 |
| GF avg | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 28 | 51 | 79 | 45 | 40 | 85 |
| GA avg | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 69% | 87% | 76% | 84% |
| 1.5 | 29% | 49% | 40% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 4% | 20% | 20% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 9% | 7% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 2-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 6-0 | 0-8 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Alfreton Town | Curzon Ashton |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 69% | 31% |
| Att | 64% | 36% |
| Def | 61% | 39% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 29% | 71% |
| Total | 47.3% | 52.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
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