Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
The Tarmac Silverlands Stadium
Expected Goals
2.27 (league 1.57)
0.79 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 68.0% | 17.7% | 11.5% |
best score tips
2 - 0
12.0%
1 - 0
10.6%
2 - 1
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Leamington | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Buxton | 0 | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 10.6% | 8.4% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 12.0% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 9.1% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 5.2% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 2.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Buxton carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 272 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Buxton +20.4, Leamington +10.3.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Buxton
vs
Leamington
Elo gapBuxton +272
Home / draw / away68% / 18% / 14%
Expected home share83%
Combined Elo2961.7
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2961.7
Elo home share
83%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1599.1 | 1362.6 |
| Form Elo | 1631.1 | 1353.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1500.1 | 1426 |
| Attack Elo | 1684.9 | 1377.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1570.8 | 1368.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +20.4 | +10.3 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Buxton last-5 Elo change: +20.4; Leamington last-5 Elo change: +10.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 40% |
| Attack | 63% | 53% |
| Defense | 63% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.20
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
85%
FT probability
2.5+
60%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 41% | 52% | 47% | 22% | 9% | 16% |
| Draws | 9% | 22% | 16% | 13% | 23% | 18% |
| Loses | 50% | 26% | 38% | 65% | 68% | 67% |
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LeamingtonDLDWLWWLLDLLLDLLLLLLLDLLWDDLLLLLLWDLLLLLWLLWL
League goals
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 38 | 41 | 79 | 24 | 16 | 40 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| GA total | 33 | 27 | 60 | 39 | 47 | 86 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Buxton | Leamington | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 87% | 71% | 62% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 47% | 22% | 60% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 13% | 2% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 2% | 2% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 17 |
Penalties
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 7 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-0 | 1-5 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 3-0 | 2-5 | 5-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Buxton | Leamington |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 63% | 38% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 61% | 39% |
| Poisson Distribution | 74% | 26% |
| H2h | 85% | 15% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 67.5% | 32.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home1.17 @ 10Bet
Draw8.00 @ Bet365
Away19.00 @ BetVictor
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.53 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.72 @ Pinnacle
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes2.70 @ BetVictor
No1.67 @ William Hill
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League standings
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