Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:30 •
The Brewery Field
Expected Goals
1.43 (league 1.57)
1.13 (league 1.32)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.4% | 26.3% | 29.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.5%
1 - 0
11.0%
2 - 1
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Marine | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Spennymoor Town | 0 | 7.7% | 8.8% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11.0% | 12.5% | 7.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Spennymoor Town carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 82 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Spennymoor Town +9.4, Marine -41.2.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Spennymoor Town
vs
Marine
Elo gapSpennymoor Town +82
Home / draw / away49% / 21% / 30%
Expected home share62%
Combined Elo3053.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3053.5
Elo home share
62%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1550.4 | 1503.1 |
| Form Elo | 1571.9 | 1482.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1502.3 | 1506.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1508.2 | 1502.8 |
| Defense Elo | 1503.2 | 1513.9 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.4 | -41.2 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Spennymoor Town last-5 Elo change: +9.4; Marine last-5 Elo change: -41.2.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 20% |
| Attack | 32% | 37% |
| Defense | 79% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.40
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
68%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 22 | 23 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 45 |
| Wins | 36% | 48% | 42% | 43% | 36% | 40% |
| Draws | 32% | 13% | 22% | 17% | 14% | 16% |
| Loses | 32% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 50% | 44% |
Spennymoor TownWWLWDLDWWWWLLDWLLDWDDLDLLWLLWWLWLDLWWDWWWDLLW
MarineLWWWLLLLDWLWWLDWWDWLDWLLWDWDLWWLLLWDWLLWLWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 30 | 31 | 61 | 38 | 23 | 61 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 34 | 34 | 68 | 36 | 35 | 71 |
| GA avg | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Spennymoor Town | Marine | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 69% | 71% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 38% | 42% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 16% | 20% | 13% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 13% | 7% | 16% |
| 4.5 | 2% | 9% | 2% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 7 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
Penalties
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-3 | 5-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 6-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Spennymoor Town | Marine |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 70% | 30% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 73% | 27% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 50% | 50% |
| Total | 55.0% | 45.0% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.00 @ William Hill
Draw3.90 @ Bet365
Away3.50 @ Betfair
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.60 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.40 @ Betfair
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ William Hill
No2.55 @ Betfair
📊
League standings
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