Liga 1 — Indonesia
Sat, Jan 3 2026 • 12:00 • Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium
Match Finished
Expected Goals
0.65 (league 1.50) 0.82 (league 1.20)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
26.7% 36.9% 36.4%
best score tips
0 - 0
22.9%
0 - 1
18.8%
1 - 0
15.0%
Score & goals probability table
Persebaya Surabaya
0 1 2 3 4 5
Persepam Madura Utd 0 22.9% 18.8% 7.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.0% 12.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 4.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricPersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
Played55
Form47%47%
Attack71%64%
Defense36%64%
Goals For (tot | avg)10 | 29 | 1.8
Goals Against (tot | avg)9 | 1.85 | 1

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.60
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.30
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.10
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

65%
FT probability

2.5+

46%
FT probability

3.5+

33%
FT probability

BTTS

69%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

2 - 3 cards
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric Persepam Madura Utd Persebaya Surabaya
HATHAT
Played78158715
Wins29%25%27%50%14%33%
Draws29%38%33%25%71%47%
Loses43%38%40%25%14%20%

Form: Persepam Madura Utd: LWDLDLDWLDWLLDW • Persebaya Surabaya: LWWLWDLDWDDDDDW

League goals

Metric Persepam Madura Utd Persebaya Surabaya
HATHAT
GF total1081816521
GF avg1.41.01.22.00.71.4
GA total10102010515
GA avg1.41.31.31.30.71.0

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LinePersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.567%80%80%73%
1.533%27%27%20%
2.57%13%13%7%
3.57%13%13%0%
4.57%0%7%0%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricPersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
HATHAT
Clean sheets123224
Failed to score235123

Penalties

MetricPersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%3 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total33

Streaks

MetricPersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
Wins12
Draws15
Losses21

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-10-24-00-1
Biggest losses1-44-11-31-0
Goals For5251
Goals Against4431

Model comparison

MetricPersepam Madura UtdPersebaya Surabaya
Form50%50%
Att53%47%
Def36%64%
Poisson Distribution43%57%
H2h29%71%
Goals44%56%
Total42.5%57.5%

Advice: Double chance : draw or Persebaya Surabaya

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home2.64 @ 188Bet
Draw3.40 @ 188Bet
Away2.96 @ Pinnacle

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.52.02 @ Unibet
Under 2.51.87 @ Pinnacle

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.77 @ 188Bet
No2.11 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

Loading standings…

Expected goals (λ): Persepam Madura Utd = 0.65 (league 1.50), Persebaya Surabaya = 0.82 (league 1.20)

Persebaya Surabaya
0 1 2 3 4 5
Persepam Madura Utd 0 22.9% 18.8% 7.7% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1 15.0% 12.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
2 4.9% 4.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
4 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 26.7% · Draw 36.9% · Away win 36.4%

vtt 4 , vtd1