Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 11:00 •
Stadio Tre Fontane
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.45)
0.84 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.3% | 25.7% | 20.5% |
best score tips
1 - 0
14.2%
1 - 1
12.0%
2 - 0
10.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Juventus U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Roma U20 | 0 | 9.2% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 14.2% | 12.0% | 5.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 10.9% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Roma U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 61 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Roma U20 -18.8, Juventus U20 -15.3.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Roma U20
vs
Juventus U20
Elo gapRoma U20 +61
Home / draw / away45% / 23% / 32%
Expected home share59%
Combined Elo3123.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3123.3
Elo home share
59%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1574.8 | 1548.5 |
| Form Elo | 1568.8 | 1535 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1514.5 | 1497.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1600.6 | 1565.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1616.5 | 1509.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -18.8 | -15.3 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Roma U20 last-5 Elo change: -18.8; Juventus U20 last-5 Elo change: -15.3.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 27% | 33% |
| Attack | 42% | 50% |
| Defense | 50% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
74%
FT probability
2.5+
52%
FT probability
3.5+
37%
FT probability
BTTS
70%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 41% | 47% | 44% | 47% | 24% | 35% |
| Draws | 35% | 24% | 29% | 35% | 29% | 32% |
| Loses | 24% | 29% | 26% | 18% | 47% | 32% |
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Juventus U20DLWLLWDDWLWWDDDLWDLWLWDWWLDLWDDWLL
League goals
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 30 | 53 | 26 | 20 | 46 |
| GF avg | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 16 | 16 | 32 | 19 | 27 | 46 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 82% | 59% | 79% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 29% | 41% | 44% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 6% | 15% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 7 | 7 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
Penalties
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-5 | 3-0 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-3 | 3-1 | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Roma U20 | Juventus U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 44% | 56% |
| Att | 45% | 55% |
| Def | 54% | 46% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 46.3% | 53.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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