Mon, Apr 27 2026 • 15:00 •
Stadio Curva Fiesole - Viola Park
Expected Goals
1.31 (league 1.45)
0.78 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | 28.6% | 22.1% |
best score tips
1 - 0
16.2%
1 - 1
12.6%
0 - 0
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Monza U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Fiorentina U20 | 0 | 12.4% | 9.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 16.2% | 12.6% | 4.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 2 | 10.6% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 3 | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Fiorentina U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 120 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Fiorentina U20 +0.8, Monza U20 -37.4.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Fiorentina U20
vs
Monza U20
Elo gapFiorentina U20 +120
Home / draw / away55% / 18% / 27%
Expected home share67%
Combined Elo3052.4
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3052.4
Elo home share
67%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1568.8 | 1483.6 |
| Form Elo | 1568 | 1466.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1557.7 | 1521.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1620.5 | 1468.5 |
| Defense Elo | 1536.9 | 1491.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +0.8 | -37.4 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Fiorentina U20 last-5 Elo change: +0.8; Monza U20 last-5 Elo change: -37.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 13% |
| Attack | 100% | 36% |
| Defense | 36% | 18% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.70
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
72%
FT probability
2.5+
51%
FT probability
3.5+
36%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-1
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 65% | 29% | 47% | 29% | 41% | 35% |
| Draws | 24% | 41% | 32% | 18% | 35% | 26% |
| Loses | 12% | 29% | 21% | 53% | 24% | 38% |
Fiorentina U20WDWLWWDWDWWDDLWDLDWDLWDWDWLWLDWWLW
Monza U20LWWLWLDDDWDWWDLLDLWDWLWLLWWWLLDDLL
League goals
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 33 | 26 | 59 | 16 | 19 | 35 |
| GF avg | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| GA total | 16 | 27 | 43 | 23 | 17 | 40 |
| GA avg | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 94% | 82% | 71% | 62% |
| 1.5 | 56% | 29% | 24% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 15% | 15% | 9% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 13 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
Penalties
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 3 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 3 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-1 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 2-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 3-1 | 0-5 | 2-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Fiorentina U20 | Monza U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 83% | 17% |
| Att | 73% | 27% |
| Def | 56% | 44% |
| Poisson Distribution | 61% | 39% |
| H2h | 75% | 25% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 68.5% | 31.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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