Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 11:00 •
Venue TBA
Expected Goals
2.43 (league 1.45)
1.54 (league 1.27)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 53.5% | 19.1% | 23.2% |
best score tips
2 - 1
8.6%
1 - 1
7.1%
3 - 1
7.0%
Score & goals probability table
| Cagliari U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Milan U20 | 0 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 4.5% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
Milan U20 carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 38 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Milan U20 +17.4, Cagliari U20 +8.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
Milan U20
vs
Cagliari U20
Elo gapMilan U20 +38
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3004.5
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3004.5
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1503.7 | 1500.8 |
| Form Elo | 1507 | 1505.7 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1494 | 1488.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1503.4 | 1526.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1534.5 | 1486 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +17.4 | +8.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. Milan U20 last-5 Elo change: +17.4; Cagliari U20 last-5 Elo change: +8.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 31% | 63% |
| Defense | 81% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 3 | 0.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
86%
FT probability
2.5+
61%
FT probability
3.5+
43%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 34 |
| Wins | 29% | 29% | 29% | 35% | 18% | 26% |
| Draws | 41% | 41% | 41% | 24% | 18% | 21% |
| Loses | 29% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 65% | 53% |
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Cagliari U20LWLLLDLLWLLWDLLWWWLLLDDDDLDLWLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 18 | 45 | 20 | 23 | 43 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 19 | 42 | 19 | 38 | 57 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 76% | 79% | 76% | 76% |
| 1.5 | 38% | 32% | 38% | 56% |
| 2.5 | 6% | 9% | 9% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 3% | 3% | 9% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 7-2 | 0-2 | 3-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-2 | 4-1 | 1-3 | 5-1 |
| Goals For | 7 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Milan U20 | Cagliari U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 33% | 67% |
| Def | 79% | 21% |
| Poisson Distribution | 62% | 38% |
| H2h | 64% | 36% |
| Goals | 56% | 44% |
| Total | 58.0% | 42.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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