Fri, May 1 2026 • 11:00 •
Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello
Expected Goals
1.24 (league 1.45)
1.47 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 31.8% | 25.6% | 42.0% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.1%
0 - 1
9.8%
1 - 2
8.9%
Score & goals probability table
| Lecce U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Cagliari U20 | 0 | 6.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Cagliari U20 +8.7, Lecce U20 -29.9.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Cagliari U20
vs
Lecce U20
Elo gapCagliari U20 +2
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo3016.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3016.6
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1491.6 | 1525 |
| Form Elo | 1490.1 | 1517.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.7 | 1502.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1525.3 | 1544 |
| Defense Elo | 1482.4 | 1477.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.7 | -29.9 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Cagliari U20 last-5 Elo change: +8.7; Lecce U20 last-5 Elo change: -29.9.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 27% |
| Attack | 56% | 25% |
| Defense | 50% | 50% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 4 | 0.8 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
72%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 18 | 35 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 35% | 17% | 26% | 39% | 35% | 37% |
| Draws | 24% | 17% | 20% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Loses | 41% | 67% | 54% | 28% | 35% | 31% |
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Lecce U20LLLWLDDDDWWLDWLLDWWWWWLWDWDWDDDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 20 | 24 | 44 | 22 | 29 | 51 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 19 | 40 | 59 | 24 | 26 | 50 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 77% | 77% | 69% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 37% | 57% | 49% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 20% | 29% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 9% | 0% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
Penalties
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 1-3 | 5-1 | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Cagliari U20 | Lecce U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 60% | 40% |
| Att | 69% | 31% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 44% | 56% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 51.8% | 48.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
Loading standings…