Sat, May 2 2026 • 11:00 •
Centro Sportivo Luigi Berlusconi
Expected Goals
0.68 (league 1.45)
1.21 (league 1.28)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 20.9% | 30.4% | 48.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
18.3%
0 - 0
15.1%
1 - 1
12.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Milan U20 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monza U20 | 0 | 15.1% | 18.3% | 11.0% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 10.3% | 12.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 3.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Monza U20 -31.5, Milan U20 +27.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Monza U20
vs
Milan U20
Elo gapMilan U20 +2
Home / draw / away35% / 30% / 35%
Expected home share50%
Combined Elo2988.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2988.9
Elo home share
50%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1476 | 1512.9 |
| Form Elo | 1457.4 | 1518.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1472 | 1501.7 |
| Attack Elo | 1468.3 | 1507.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1481.1 | 1536 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -31.5 | +27.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Monza U20 last-5 Elo change: -31.5; Milan U20 last-5 Elo change: +27.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 60% |
| Attack | 31% | 46% |
| Defense | 31% | 77% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 9 | 1.8 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
66%
FT probability
2.5+
46%
FT probability
3.5+
33%
FT probability
BTTS
66%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
1-2
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 17 | 17 | 34 | 18 | 17 | 35 |
| Wins | 29% | 41% | 35% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Draws | 18% | 35% | 26% | 39% | 41% | 40% |
| Loses | 53% | 24% | 38% | 28% | 29% | 29% |
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League goals
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 16 | 19 | 35 | 29 | 18 | 47 |
| GF avg | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| GA total | 23 | 17 | 40 | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Monza U20 | Milan U20 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 71% | 62% | 77% | 80% |
| 1.5 | 24% | 41% | 40% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 9% | 9% | 6% | 9% |
| 3.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 3% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 6 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 6 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
Penalties
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 3 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 3 |
Streaks
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-3 | 7-2 | 0-2 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 2-0 | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Monza U20 | Milan U20 |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 18% | 82% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 25% | 75% |
| Poisson Distribution | 38% | 62% |
| H2h | 29% | 71% |
| Goals | 38% | 63% |
| Total | 31.3% | 68.8% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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