Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
Rheinstadion
Expected Goals
1.19 (league 1.81)
1.31 (league 1.59)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.6% | 26.9% | 39.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
12.8%
0 - 1
10.7%
1 - 0
9.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Homberg | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Monheim | 0 | 8.1% | 10.6% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.7% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Monheim carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 56 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Monheim -37.9, Homberg -3.7.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Monheim
vs
Homberg
Elo gapMonheim +56
Home / draw / away44% / 24% / 32%
Expected home share58%
Combined Elo2942.6
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2942.6
Elo home share
58%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1482 | 1460.6 |
| Form Elo | 1460.4 | 1447.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1479.3 | 1483.5 |
| Attack Elo | 1540 | 1474.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1436.8 | 1466.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -37.9 | -3.7 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Monheim last-5 Elo change: -37.9; Homberg last-5 Elo change: -3.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 40% | 40% |
| Attack | 35% | 29% |
| Defense | 41% | 65% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 10 | 2 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.50
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.10
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.40
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
84%
FT probability
2.5+
59%
FT probability
3.5+
42%
FT probability
BTTS
73%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 15 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 23% | 40% | 32% | 36% | 29% | 32% |
| Draws | 23% | 27% | 25% | 21% | 21% | 21% |
| Loses | 54% | 33% | 43% | 43% | 50% | 46% |
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HombergWLWLLWWWLWDLLDDLWLDDLLDLLLWW
League goals
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 15 | 25 | 40 | 21 | 18 | 39 |
| GF avg | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 21 | 25 | 46 | 18 | 25 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Monheim | Homberg | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 82% | 68% | 79% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 50% | 39% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 18% | 21% | 18% |
| 3.5 | 4% | 11% | 11% | 7% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
Penalties
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 0-4 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-4 | 5-2 | 0-3 | 4-0 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Monheim | Homberg |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 50% | 50% |
| Att | 55% | 45% |
| Def | 38% | 63% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 47% | 53% |
| Total | 47.8% | 52.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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