Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:30 •
Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse
Expected Goals
2.00 (league 1.80)
1.42 (league 1.58)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 49.5% | 21.6% | 26.8% |
best score tips
2 - 1
9.3%
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 2
6.6%
Score & goals probability table
| SW Essen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Hilden | 0 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 6.6% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Hilden carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 111 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Hilden +7.1, SW Essen +26.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Hilden
vs
SW Essen
Elo gapHilden +111
Home / draw / away53% / 18% / 29%
Expected home share65%
Combined Elo3176.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3176.2
Elo home share
65%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1626 | 1550.2 |
| Form Elo | 1647 | 1568 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1546.3 | 1528.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1766.7 | 1550.2 |
| Defense Elo | 1576.5 | 1521.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +7.1 | +26.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Hilden last-5 Elo change: +7.1; SW Essen last-5 Elo change: +26.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 60% |
| Attack | 100% | 67% |
| Defense | 67% | 42% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 13 | 2.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 7 | 1.4 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.80
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
70%
FT probability
3.5+
50%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Wins | 57% | 71% | 64% | 36% | 50% | 43% |
| Draws | 7% | 7% | 7% | 21% | 14% | 18% |
| Loses | 36% | 21% | 29% | 43% | 36% | 39% |
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SW EssenDLWWLWLLDWDLLWWDLLDWWWLLWWWL
League goals
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 34 | 40 | 74 | 23 | 20 | 43 |
| GF avg | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| GA total | 22 | 18 | 40 | 23 | 21 | 44 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Hilden | SW Essen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 86% | 79% | 79% | 68% |
| 1.5 | 79% | 36% | 46% | 43% |
| 2.5 | 50% | 18% | 14% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 7% | 11% | 18% |
| 4.5 | 11% | 4% | 4% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 10 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 2 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 5-0 | 0-5 | 4-0 | 3-5 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-2 | 1-4 | 4-2 |
| Goals For | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Hilden | SW Essen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 57% | 43% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 64% | 36% |
| Poisson Distribution | 59% | 41% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 63% | 38% |
| Total | 64.2% | 36.0% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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