Fri, May 1 2026 • 13:00 •
Uhlenkrugstadion
Expected Goals
1.35 (league 1.78)
2.63 (league 1.58)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 17.6% | 17.3% | 59.7% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.7%
1 - 3
7.7%
1 - 1
6.7%
Score & goals probability table
| Germania Ratingen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| SW Essen | 0 | 1.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2.6% | |
| 2 | 1.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 1.8% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
SW Essen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 30 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: SW Essen +44.1, Germania Ratingen -8.7.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
SW Essen
vs
Germania Ratingen
Elo gapSW Essen +30
Home / draw / away40% / 27% / 33%
Expected home share54%
Combined Elo3138.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3138.8
Elo home share
54%
Match tone
Strong Watch
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1567.1 | 1571.7 |
| Form Elo | 1594.3 | 1570.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1528.1 | 1523.6 |
| Attack Elo | 1576 | 1641.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1522.2 | 1518.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +44.1 | -8.7 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. SW Essen last-5 Elo change: +44.1; Germania Ratingen last-5 Elo change: -8.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 80% | 67% |
| Attack | 92% | 100% |
| Defense | 58% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 13 | 2.6 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.30
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 15 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 29 |
| Wins | 36% | 53% | 45% | 53% | 57% | 55% |
| Draws | 21% | 13% | 17% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Loses | 43% | 33% | 38% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
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Germania RatingenWDWLWWWLWWWWDDDWDLWWDDDWWWWDL
League goals
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 24 | 47 | 40 | 37 | 77 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| GA total | 23 | 23 | 46 | 21 | 21 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 79% | 69% | 90% | 72% |
| 1.5 | 48% | 45% | 72% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 28% | 55% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 17% | 28% | 10% |
| 4.5 | 3% | 0% | 17% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Penalties
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 3-5 | 5-0 | 1-6 |
| Biggest losses | 1-4 | 4-2 | 1-4 | 4-3 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | SW Essen | Germania Ratingen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 55% | 45% |
| Att | 46% | 54% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 34% | 66% |
| H2h | 60% | 40% |
| Goals | 57% | 43% |
| Total | 52.3% | 47.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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