Sun, May 3 2026 • 12:00 •
Parkstadion
Expected Goals
1.81 (league 2.24)
1.67 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 40.6% | 22.3% | 35.3% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.4%
1 - 2
7.8%
Score & goals probability table
| Tasmania Berlin | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Neustrelitz | 0 | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 5.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home edge
Neustrelitz carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 50 points. This sits in the medium confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Neustrelitz +8.9, Tasmania Berlin -6.4.
Medium confidence
Upset risk: Medium
Elo standalone
Neustrelitz
vs
Tasmania Berlin
Elo gapNeustrelitz +50
Home / draw / away43% / 24% / 33%
Expected home share57%
Combined Elo3113
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home edge
Confidence band
Medium confidence
Upset risk
Medium
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3113
Elo home share
57%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1564.1 | 1548.9 |
| Form Elo | 1579 | 1551 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.3 | 1498.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1694.9 | 1718 |
| Defense Elo | 1546.1 | 1516 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +8.9 | -6.4 |
The structural rating edge is meaningful enough to support the favorite, especially if the match follows a normal tempo. Neustrelitz last-5 Elo change: +8.9; Tasmania Berlin last-5 Elo change: -6.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 80% |
| Attack | 57% | 81% |
| Defense | 76% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 12 | 2.4 | 17 | 3.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1.2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
5.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
75%
FT probability
3.5+
53%
FT probability
BTTS
75%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
na
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 13 | 13 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 26 |
| Wins | 62% | 46% | 54% | 86% | 58% | 73% |
| Draws | 8% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 4% |
| Loses | 31% | 31% | 31% | 7% | 42% | 23% |
NeustrelitzLLDWWWLWLLLWWWWLWDWWDWWDWL
Tasmania BerlinWLWWDWLWLWWWWWWWWWLWLWLWWW
League goals
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 35 | 20 | 55 | 46 | 28 | 74 |
| GF avg | 2.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| GA total | 16 | 16 | 32 | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 77% | 85% | 54% |
| 1.5 | 62% | 35% | 69% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 12% | 50% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 0% | 31% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 0% | 23% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 4 | 9 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 6-1 | 0-3 | 10-3 | 0-7 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 2-0 | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Goals For | 6 | 3 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Neustrelitz | Tasmania Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 45% | 55% |
| Att | 41% | 59% |
| Def | 55% | 45% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 71% | 29% |
| Goals | 67% | 33% |
| Total | 55.3% | 44.7% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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