Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 12:00 •
Husarensportpark Grimma Hauptplatz
Expected Goals
1.82 (league 1.68)
2.12 (league 1.52)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.8% | 20.6% | 43.4% |
best score tips
1 - 2
8.0%
1 - 1
7.5%
2 - 2
7.2%
Score & goals probability table
| Einheit Wernigerode | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FC Grimma | 0 | 1.9% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 3.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 3.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.2% | |
| 3 | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away lean
Einheit Wernigerode carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 32 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FC Grimma -3.9, Einheit Wernigerode -12.0.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
FC Grimma
vs
Einheit Wernigerode
Elo gapEinheit Wernigerode +32
Home / draw / away33% / 26% / 41%
Expected home share45%
Combined Elo2874.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2874.2
Elo home share
45%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1403.7 | 1470.5 |
| Form Elo | 1401.3 | 1466.2 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1467.6 | 1482.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1527.4 | 1482.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1244.5 | 1423.5 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -3.9 | -12.0 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. FC Grimma last-5 Elo change: -3.9; Einheit Wernigerode last-5 Elo change: -12.0.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
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Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 27% |
| Attack | 85% | 46% |
| Defense | 0% | 31% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 11 | 2.2 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 18 | 3.6 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.00
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.20
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.40
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
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Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 12 | 13 | 25 | 13 | 11 | 24 |
| Wins | 25% | 15% | 20% | 31% | 36% | 33% |
| Draws | 17% | 15% | 16% | 23% | 18% | 21% |
| Loses | 58% | 69% | 64% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
FC GrimmaLLLWDDWLLWLLLDLLLLDWLLWLL
Einheit WernigerodeLWLLLWWDLLWWLDDWLDWDLLLW
League goals
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 17 | 39 | 19 | 15 | 34 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| GA total | 28 | 38 | 66 | 24 | 19 | 43 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 72% | 80% | 79% | 88% |
| 1.5 | 44% | 72% | 46% | 58% |
| 2.5 | 24% | 52% | 17% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 32% | 0% | 4% |
| 4.5 | 4% | 16% | 0% | 4% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 0 |
Streaks
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-3 | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 7-0 | 0-5 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FC Grimma | Einheit Wernigerode |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 43% | 57% |
| Att | 65% | 35% |
| Def | 33% | 67% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 80% | 20% |
| Goals | 59% | 41% |
| Total | 54.5% | 45.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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