Sun, May 3 2026 • 12:00 •
GGZ-Arena Zwickau
Expected Goals
0.99 (league 1.64)
1.03 (league 1.29)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.6% | 30.7% | 35.6% |
best score tips
0 - 1
13.7%
1 - 1
13.5%
0 - 0
13.3%
Score & goals probability table
| FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| FSV Zwickau | 0 | 13.3% | 13.7% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 7.0% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 6.5% | 6.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home lean
FSV Zwickau carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 34 points. This sits in the lean confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: FSV Zwickau +9.0, FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt -1.4.
Lean confidence
Upset risk: Medium-high
Elo standalone
FSV Zwickau
vs
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
Elo gapFSV Zwickau +34
Home / draw / away41% / 26% / 33%
Expected home share55%
Combined Elo3233
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home lean
Confidence band
Lean confidence
Upset risk
Medium-high
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3233
Elo home share
55%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1616 | 1617 |
| Form Elo | 1629.1 | 1622.8 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1596.2 | 1577.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1566.6 | 1695.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1549.5 | 1508.7 |
| Last 5 Elo change | +9.0 | -1.4 |
There is a measurable Elo lean, but the gap still leaves room for the game state and finishing variance to reshape the result. FSV Zwickau last-5 Elo change: +9.0; FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt last-5 Elo change: -1.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 67% | 53% |
| Attack | 32% | 55% |
| Defense | 64% | 64% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
1.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
81%
FT probability
2.5+
57%
FT probability
3.5+
41%
FT probability
BTTS
71%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 67% | 44% | 55% | 44% | 60% | 52% |
| Draws | 33% | 13% | 23% | 38% | 27% | 32% |
| Loses | 0% | 44% | 23% | 19% | 13% | 16% |
FSV ZwickauDLWDDWLWWWLWLWDWWWDLDWWWLWDLWWW
FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtWWWLWWWWDDLWDDDDWDWLWLWDWWLWDWD
League goals
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 27 | 20 | 47 | 33 | 29 | 62 |
| GF avg | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 10 | 30 | 40 | 27 | 14 | 41 |
| GA avg | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 58% | 87% | 81% |
| 1.5 | 55% | 39% | 61% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 23% | 42% | 6% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 6% | 10% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 9 | 4 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 0-2 | 4-2 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | — | 5-1 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
Model comparison
| Metric | FSV Zwickau | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 56% | 44% |
| Att | 37% | 63% |
| Def | 50% | 50% |
| Poisson Distribution | 52% | 48% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 52% | 48% |
| Total | 49.5% | 50.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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