Sun, Apr 26 2026 • 13:00 •
HSC-Stadion Constantinstraße
Expected Goals
1.84 (league 1.77)
2.37 (league 1.65)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 29.3% | 19.6% | 46.7% |
best score tips
1 - 2
7.7%
2 - 2
7.1%
1 - 1
6.5%
Score & goals probability table
| VfB Lübeck | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| HSC Hannover | 0 | 1.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 2.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | |
| 2 | 2.5% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.6% | |
| 3 | 1.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
VfB Lübeck carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 114 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: HSC Hannover -27.7, VfB Lübeck +26.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
HSC Hannover
vs
VfB Lübeck
Elo gapVfB Lübeck +114
Home / draw / away28% / 18% / 54%
Expected home share34%
Combined Elo2951
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2951
Elo home share
34%
Match tone
Heavy Favorite
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1400.8 | 1550.2 |
| Form Elo | 1376.1 | 1559.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1459.6 | 1525.4 |
| Attack Elo | 1511.4 | 1632.1 |
| Defense Elo | 1198.5 | 1432.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -27.7 | +26.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. HSC Hannover last-5 Elo change: -27.7; VfB Lübeck last-5 Elo change: +26.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 7% | 67% |
| Attack | 29% | 71% |
| Defense | 0% | 71% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 12 | 2.4 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 17 | 3.4 | 5 | 1 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.60
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.80
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
77%
FT probability
3.5+
55%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 14 | 15 | 29 |
| Wins | 20% | 20% | 20% | 43% | 33% | 38% |
| Draws | 27% | 20% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 24% |
| Loses | 53% | 60% | 57% | 29% | 47% | 38% |
HSC HannoverWLDDLDLWWLLLLWLWWLLDDDLLLLLLLD
VfB LübeckWLLWDWLWWLLLLDDDDWLDWLWLWWDWL
League goals
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 19 | 17 | 36 | 23 | 26 | 49 |
| GF avg | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| GA total | 35 | 45 | 80 | 19 | 37 | 56 |
| GA avg | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 67% | 90% | 83% | 86% |
| 1.5 | 33% | 77% | 52% | 59% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 53% | 24% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 27% | 10% | 14% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 5 | 100.00% | 4 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 5 | 4 |
Streaks
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 1-3 | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-5 | 6-0 | 1-5 | 7-2 |
| Goals For | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | HSC Hannover | VfB Lübeck |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 9% | 91% |
| Att | 29% | 71% |
| Def | 23% | 77% |
| Poisson Distribution | 41% | 59% |
| H2h | 33% | 67% |
| Goals | 44% | 56% |
| Total | 29.8% | 70.2% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home2.94 @ 1xBet
Draw4.00 @ Bet365
Away2.05 @ Betano
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.40 @ Bet365
Under 2.52.75 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.40 @ Bet365
No2.90 @ 1xBet
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League standings
Loading standings…