Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 17:30 •
Dietmar-Scholze-Stadion an der Lohmühle
Expected Goals
1.54 (league 1.77)
1.79 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 32.9% | 22.7% | 42.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.9%
1 - 2
8.8%
2 - 1
7.6%
Score & goals probability table
| SV Drochtersen/Assel | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| VfB Lübeck | 0 | 3.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Away strong edge
SV Drochtersen/Assel carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 87 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: VfB Lübeck -4.9, SV Drochtersen/Assel +1.8.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
VfB Lübeck
vs
SV Drochtersen/Assel
Elo gapSV Drochtersen/Assel +87
Home / draw / away30% / 20% / 50%
Expected home share38%
Combined Elo3194.2
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Away strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3194.2
Elo home share
38%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1536.2 | 1658 |
| Form Elo | 1536.6 | 1663.3 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1512.1 | 1533.8 |
| Attack Elo | 1613.9 | 1815.3 |
| Defense Elo | 1437.8 | 1565.3 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -4.9 | +1.8 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. VfB Lübeck last-5 Elo change: -4.9; SV Drochtersen/Assel last-5 Elo change: +1.8.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 67% |
| Attack | 53% | 73% |
| Defense | 60% | 40% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 11 | 2.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 6 | 1.2 | 9 | 1.8 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.10
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.70
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.30
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.10
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
71%
FT probability
3.5+
51%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 43% | 31% | 37% | 88% | 53% | 71% |
| Draws | 29% | 19% | 23% | 0% | 13% | 6% |
| Loses | 29% | 50% | 40% | 13% | 33% | 23% |
VfB LübeckWLLWDWLWWLLLLDDDDWLDWLWLWWDWLL
SV Drochtersen/AsselWWWLWWLWLWWWWWWLWWDWLWWWWLWLWDW
League goals
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 23 | 26 | 49 | 48 | 31 | 79 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| GA total | 19 | 38 | 57 | 18 | 25 | 43 |
| GA avg | 1.4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 87% | 87% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 50% | 57% | 77% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 23% | 20% | 48% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 10% | 13% | 26% | 0% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 7% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Penalties
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 4 | 100.00% | 6 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 4 | 6 |
Streaks
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 4 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 1 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-1 | 0-4 | 7-2 | 0-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-5 | 7-2 | 1-3 | 3-0 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 5 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
Model comparison
| Metric | VfB Lübeck | SV Drochtersen/Assel |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 41% | 59% |
| Att | 42% | 58% |
| Def | 60% | 40% |
| Poisson Distribution | 47% | 53% |
| H2h | 50% | 50% |
| Goals | 40% | 60% |
| Total | 46.7% | 53.3% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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