Sat, May 2 2026 • 13:30 •
Adolf-Jäger-Kampfbahn
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.77)
1.61 (league 1.64)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | 22.2% | 32.9% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.3%
2 - 1
8.7%
1 - 2
7.5%
Score & goals probability table
| St. Pauli II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Altona 93 | 0 | 3.1% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 5.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 3.4% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Altona 93 -19.4, St. Pauli II +3.7.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Altona 93
vs
St. Pauli II
Elo gapAltona 93 +15
Home / draw / away37% / 28% / 35%
Expected home share52%
Combined Elo2841.3
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
2841.3
Elo home share
52%
Match tone
Good Watch
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1410.8 | 1430.5 |
| Form Elo | 1394.6 | 1419.9 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1476.1 | 1439.9 |
| Attack Elo | 1546.1 | 1446.7 |
| Defense Elo | 1258.3 | 1370.2 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -19.4 | +3.7 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Altona 93 last-5 Elo change: -19.4; St. Pauli II last-5 Elo change: +3.7.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 20% | 40% |
| Attack | 53% | 33% |
| Defense | 0% | 33% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 8 | 1.6 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 19 | 3.8 | 10 | 2 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.40
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.60
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
4.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.60
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
95%
FT probability
2.5+
73%
FT probability
3.5+
52%
FT probability
BTTS
80%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 27% | 13% | 20% | 7% | 20% | 13% |
| Draws | 20% | 7% | 13% | 53% | 13% | 33% |
| Loses | 53% | 80% | 67% | 40% | 67% | 53% |
Altona 93WLDDLWWLLLLDLWLLLLLLLWDLLLLLWL
St. Pauli IILLLLDLDLLWDWLDDLLDDDLDLLDWWLLL
League goals
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 18 | 40 | 17 | 16 | 33 |
| GF avg | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| GA total | 36 | 46 | 82 | 32 | 33 | 65 |
| GA avg | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 70% | 93% | 80% | 93% |
| 1.5 | 43% | 63% | 23% | 50% |
| 2.5 | 13% | 50% | 7% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 37% | 0% | 20% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 17% | 0% | 10% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Failed to score | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 1 | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 1 | 1 |
Streaks
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 2-4 | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Biggest losses | 2-7 | 6-1 | 0-5 | 7-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Goals Against | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Altona 93 | St. Pauli II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 33% | 67% |
| Att | 62% | 38% |
| Def | 34% | 66% |
| Poisson Distribution | 53% | 47% |
| H2h | 62% | 38% |
| Goals | 58% | 42% |
| Total | 50.3% | 49.7% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
📊
League standings
Loading standings…