Sat, Apr 25 2026 • 12:00 •
Liqui-Moly-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.65 (league 1.56)
1.90 (league 1.39)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 33.2% | 22.0% | 42.8% |
best score tips
1 - 1
9.0%
1 - 2
8.6%
2 - 1
7.4%
Score & goals probability table
| Illertissen | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Eichstätt | 0 | 2.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 4.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 2.1% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Balanced Elo outlook
Elo reads this fixture as balanced. There is no strong structural separation before kickoff. Recent Elo movement: Eichstätt -42.5, Illertissen +8.4.
Thin confidence
Upset risk: High
Elo standalone
Eichstätt
vs
Illertissen
Elo gapEichstätt +6
Home / draw / away36% / 29% / 35%
Expected home share51%
Combined Elo3138.9
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Balanced Elo outlook
Confidence band
Thin confidence
Upset risk
High
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3138.9
Elo home share
51%
Match tone
Must Watch
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1554.7 | 1584.2 |
| Form Elo | 1531.7 | 1591.5 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1545.5 | 1548.1 |
| Attack Elo | 1590 | 1656.4 |
| Defense Elo | 1587.1 | 1526.4 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -42.5 | +8.4 |
The rating gap is narrow, so this is better treated as a volatile matchup than a banker spot. Eichstätt last-5 Elo change: -42.5; Illertissen last-5 Elo change: +8.4.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 13% | 67% |
| Attack | 25% | 38% |
| Defense | 56% | 81% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 4 | 0.8 | 6 | 1.2 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 7 | 1.4 | 3 | 0.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.50
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
4.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.50
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.70
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
91%
FT probability
2.5+
64%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
79%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 14 | 16 | 30 | 15 | 15 | 30 |
| Wins | 36% | 38% | 37% | 47% | 60% | 53% |
| Draws | 50% | 19% | 33% | 27% | 20% | 23% |
| Loses | 14% | 44% | 30% | 27% | 20% | 23% |
EichstättLWWLWWDWDWLDDDWLWWDLWWLDDDLLDL
IllertissenLWWLLLWLWWWDWDWWDDWWDLWWDWWDWL
League goals
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 22 | 22 | 44 | 25 | 36 | 61 |
| GF avg | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| GA total | 15 | 19 | 34 | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| GA avg | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Eichstätt | Illertissen | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 80% | 80% | 83% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 47% | 27% | 53% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 17% | 7% | 33% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 3% | 0% | 23% | 3% |
| 4.5 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Penalties
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 2 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 0 | 2 |
Streaks
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 3-0 | 1-4 | 4-0 | 1-5 |
| Biggest losses | 1-2 | 3-2 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Goals Against | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Eichstätt | Illertissen |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 17% | 83% |
| Att | 40% | 60% |
| Def | 30% | 70% |
| Poisson Distribution | 46% | 54% |
| H2h | 15% | 85% |
| Goals | 27% | 73% |
| Total | 29.2% | 70.8% |
💸
Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
Match Winner (Bet ID 1)
Home3.10 @ 10Bet
Draw3.60 @ Bet365
Away2.05 @ 10Bet
Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)
Over 2.51.65 @ 10Bet
Under 2.52.20 @ Bet365
Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)
Yes1.57 @ Bet365
No2.29 @ 1xBet
📊
League standings
Loading standings…