Thu, Apr 30 2026 • 16:30 •
Vöhlin-Stadion
Expected Goals
1.87 (league 1.54)
1.11 (league 1.41)
1x2 probabilities
| home | draw | away |
|---|---|---|
| 54.1% | 22.5% | 22.1% |
best score tips
1 - 1
10.5%
2 - 1
9.9%
1 - 0
9.5%
Score & goals probability table
| Bayern München II | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Illertissen | 0 | 5.1% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.5% | 10.5% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | |
FootyWow Elo verdict
Home strong edge
Illertissen carry the stronger pre-match Elo base with an adjusted gap of about 98 points. This sits in the strong confidence band and is best used as a strength baseline rather than a stand-alone bet trigger. Elo standalone. Recent Elo movement: Illertissen -11.7, Bayern München II -4.6.
Strong confidence
Upset risk: Low
Elo standalone
Illertissen
vs
Bayern München II
Elo gapIllertissen +98
Home / draw / away52% / 19% / 29%
Expected home share64%
Combined Elo3082.8
Deep Elo analysisOpen
Structural edge
Home strong edge
Confidence band
Strong confidence
Upset risk
Low
Model agreement
Elo standalone
Combined Elo
3082.8
Elo home share
64%
Match tone
Tactical Watch
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|---|---|
| Overall Elo | 1572.7 | 1510.1 |
| Form Elo | 1572.9 | 1504.1 |
| Home / Away Elo | 1523.6 | 1477.2 |
| Attack Elo | 1644 | 1604.6 |
| Defense Elo | 1523.4 | 1483.8 |
| Last 5 Elo change | -11.7 | -4.6 |
This profiles as a strong Elo mismatch rather than a marginal pre-match edge. Illertissen last-5 Elo change: -11.7; Bayern München II last-5 Elo change: -4.6.
Pre-match predictions & statistics
🔮
Team comparison
Last 5 results
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 5 | 5 |
| Form | 47% | 40% |
| Attack | 28% | 28% |
| Defense | 72% | 56% |
| Goals For (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Goals Against (tot | avg) | 5 | 1 | 8 | 1.6 |
Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)
3.80
Home all + Away all
Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
3.00
Home @home + Away @away
Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)
2.90
Home all + Away all
Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)
2.90
Home @home + Away @away
1.5+
90%
FT probability
2.5+
63%
FT probability
3.5+
45%
FT probability
BTTS
76%
FT probability
Yellow Cards
0-0
Expected (per game)
League fixtures
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Played | 15 | 16 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 31 |
| Wins | 47% | 56% | 52% | 56% | 27% | 42% |
| Draws | 27% | 19% | 23% | 19% | 13% | 16% |
| Loses | 27% | 25% | 26% | 25% | 60% | 42% |
IllertissenLWWLLLWLWWWDWDWWDDWWDLWWDWWDWLL
Bayern München IIWWWLDWLLLDWLDLWWLLWWWLWDDLWLLLW
League goals
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| GF total | 25 | 36 | 61 | 36 | 19 | 55 |
| GF avg | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| GA total | 18 | 26 | 44 | 21 | 26 | 47 |
| GA avg | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
Under/Over distribution (percent)
| Line | Illertissen | Bayern München II | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| For | Against | For | Against | |
| 0.5 | 81% | 77% | 81% | 77% |
| 1.5 | 52% | 42% | 42% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 19% | 26% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 3% | 16% | 6% |
| 4.5 | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% |
Clean sheets & failed to score
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | A | T | H | A | T | |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Failed to score | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Penalties
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|---|---|
| Scored (total | %) | 2 | 100.00% | 5 | 100.00% |
| Missed (total | %) | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| Total | 2 | 5 |
Streaks
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|---|---|
| Wins | 3 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
Biggest results (H/A)
| Metric | H | A | H | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest wins | 4-0 | 1-5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Biggest losses | 0-3 | 4-1 | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Goals For | 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals Against | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Model comparison
| Metric | Illertissen | Bayern München II |
|---|---|---|
| Form | 54% | 46% |
| Att | 50% | 50% |
| Def | 62% | 38% |
| Poisson Distribution | 63% | 37% |
| H2h | 38% | 62% |
| Goals | 48% | 52% |
| Total | 52.5% | 47.5% |
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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)
No odds available for this fixture.
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League standings
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