Sat, Oct 4 2025 • 12:00 • Wasen-Stadion
Match Finished
Expected Goals
4.28 (league 1.87) 0.69 (league 1.62)
1x2 probabilities
homedrawaway
67.0% 4.9% 2.1%
best score tips
4 - 0
9.7%
3 - 0
9.1%
5 - 0
8.3%
Score & goals probability table
FC 08 Homburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
SGV Freiberg 0 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 6.4% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.1% 6.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 9.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 8.3% 5.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Pre-match predictions & statistics

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Team comparison

Last 5 results

MetricSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
Played55
Form87%47%
Attack63%30%
Defense78%78%
Goals For (tot | avg)17 | 3.48 | 1.6
Goals Against (tot | avg)6 | 1.26 | 1.2

Scored goals avg. (Both Teams)

5.50
Home all + Away all

Scored goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

6.00
Home @home + Away @away

Conceded goals avg. (Both Teams)

2.40
Home all + Away all

Conceded goals avg. haP (Both Teams)

2.90
Home @home + Away @away

1.5+

95%
FT probability

2.5+

84%
FT probability

3.5+

60%
FT probability

BTTS

83%
FT probability

Yellow Cards

- no cards data
Expected (per game)

League fixtures

Metric SGV Freiberg FC 08 Homburg
HATHAT
Played55106410
Wins100%80%90%33%25%30%
Draws0%20%10%50%50%50%
Loses0%0%0%17%25%20%

Form: SGV Freiberg: WWWWWWWWWD • FC 08 Homburg: DLWWLDDDDW

League goals

Metric SGV Freiberg FC 08 Homburg
HATHAT
GF total161632121123
GF avg3.23.23.22.02.82.3
GA total26861016
GA avg0.41.20.81.02.51.6

Under/Over distribution (percent)

LineSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
ForAgainstForAgainst
0.5100%60%100%80%
1.580%20%60%40%
2.580%0%30%20%
3.540%0%20%10%
4.520%0%10%10%

Clean sheets & failed to score

MetricSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
HATHAT
Clean sheets404202
Failed to score000000

Penalties

MetricSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
Scored (total | %)3 | 100.00%2 | 100.00%
Missed (total | %)0 | 0%0 | 0%
Total32

Streaks

MetricSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
Wins92
Draws04
Losses01

Biggest results (H/A)

MetricHAHA
Biggest wins5-02-56-01-4
Biggest losses——1-35-3
Goals For5564
Goals Against2235

Model comparison

MetricSGV FreibergFC 08 Homburg
Form65%35%
Att68%32%
Def50%50%
Poisson Distribution86%14%
H2h80%20%
Goals56%44%
Total67.5%32.5%

Advice: Combo Winner : SGV Freiberg and +1.5 goals

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Odds (best price across all bookmakers)

Match Winner (Bet ID 1)

Home1.70 @ Betano
Draw4.75 @ Betfair
Away6.00 @ Betfair

Goals Over/Under (Bet ID 5)

Over 2.51.40 @ 10Bet
Under 2.53.10 @ Betfair

Both Teams Score (Bet ID 8)

Yes1.50 @ Bet365
No2.71 @ Pinnacle
Select to view full market tables.
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League standings

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Expected goals (λ): SGV Freiberg = 4.28 (league 1.87), FC 08 Homburg = 0.69 (league 1.62)

FC 08 Homburg
0 1 2 3 4 5
SGV Freiberg 0 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
1 3.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
2 6.4% 4.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
3 9.1% 6.3% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
4 9.7% 6.7% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
5 8.3% 5.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%

Outcome probabilities: Home win 67.0% · Draw 4.9% · Away win 2.1%

Vtot 1 , Vtod1